The Spain of today is in a deep financial crisis.
Rather than the country pulling together it is pulling apart. The core of
Spain, still less than a year since it returned a Partido Popular government, is
in revolt against Rajoy and his policies.
In the autonomous regions that revolt has gone a stage
further with a stronger desire than ever to see a break with Madrid. Recently
the President of the Generalitat, Artur Mas, met Rajoy in the Spanish capital determined
to get a new deal for Cataluña. Not only did he leave empty handed he went
straight back to Cataluña and announced a regional general election for
November 25. This in essence will be a referendum on Cataluña’s links with
Spain: but Mas has stated he will call an actual referendum in the next legislature
on self-determination even though the State Government will not allow it.
At the weekend Mas spoke about a future independent
Cataluña in the New York Times. He said his goal was for the Cataluña to take
its place in a United States of Europe. He wants an independent Cataluña to be
in the EU and Euro and points out the region will be 12 th out of the 27
countries in the EC on the basis of wealth.
Cataluña has an economy of 260,000 million euros which
puts it on par with Portugal. An independent region would have a population of
7.5 million, meaning that Spain would loose 16 per cent of its residents in the
process. Mas insists that Spain would not be insolvent without Cataluña but it
would be more limited.
Under the Spanish Constitution Cataluña cannot hold a
referendum to leave Spain. Neither can the Basque or any other region. However
a constitution only holds good whilst it is accepted by the people. We have
seen with the Arab Spring how by taking to the streets people have overturned
governments and dictators. Make no mistake if the population of Cataluña, the
Basque region, Galicia and other areas of Spain with their own distinct
identity marched against the constitution and for independence Madrid would
descend in to chaos: the Spanish State as we know it would cease to exist.
All of this is a very real possibility. The nation is
already on the march against Rajoy and the Partido Popular because of his
government’s handling of the economic crisis. They are angry at the high
jobless levels especially amongst the young where it stands at over 52 per
cent. On average 517 people lose their homes each day, 46,559 in the past three months. Since the
economic crisis started over 185,140 have lost the roofs over their heads.
During the same period the finance companies have issued 374,230 court
proceedings over unpaid mortgages. There
are savage cuts to education, hospitals and to the public services. The only
people getting billions of euros in bail outs are the corrupt and abusive banks
who are responsible for the chaos in the first place. Add to that the widely
held belief in Cataluña that the region is being unfairly discriminated against
which fuels further the demand for its independence. Stir in the Basques,
Galicians and other regions and you have an explosive mix.
To this has to be added the recent call by the
socialist president of Andalucía, José Antonio Griñán, for a federal Spain.
Speaking on Europa Press Televisión, Griñán called for the development of a
federal Spain, co-operative, where all are equal before the law and at the same
time full respect is shown for the nation’s diversity.
The Andalucía leader stated “I think that the
Constitution, that is the fruit of consensus, is the road and the solution to
our problems as well.” He wants to see the country’s Magna Cart changed so it
now meets the realities of present day Spain as it did when it was first drawn
up.
Griñán said Spain had the opportunity to construct a
nation of autonomous regions, for a phase of co-operation that will lead
directly to a federal model based on the objective of a place for all, where
employment is the priority and which gives hope to all. Griñán’s party leader,
the secretary general of PSOE, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, who was the former
Minister of the Interior, has also spoken since in favour of a federal model
for Spain in line with that found in Germany. He pointed out he leads a
federated party, why can’t there be a federated nation?
Whilst the radical Catalans and Basques want full on
independence Griñán’s call is for a Spanish federation of independent regions.
Needless to say both of these visions have the Partido Popular in panic because
it is a centralist party and rather than cede power it would rather disband the
regions with control returning to Madrid as in the days of Franco.
Recently the president of the Basque party, the PNV,
and its candidate for Lehendakari (leader of the Basque Parliament), Iñigo
Urkullu, made some startling comments. He believes that after the Rajoy
Government has taken action over adjusting the nation’s budgets it will move to
re-centralise Spain. If indeed he is correct and Rajoy takes back powers from
the autonomous regions, from the Basques, the Catalans, the Galicians and
indeed the people of Andalucía he will be returning Spain to a nation on the
Franco model. Such actions would cause violent protests in Spain and would
almost certainly see ETA take up its arms again - without wanting to be
alarmist we could be on the verge of a major revolt against Madrid: certainly
civil disobedience but one hopes and prays not civil war.
(The above article was published in the London
Progressive Journal on October 11 2012).
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