Back on October 5 I wrote an article in the Gibraltar
daily newspaper, Panorama, in which I told how I got talking to a young
politician by the name of Hadleigh Roberts at the Labour Party Conference in
Manchester. He is a linguist and his skills saw him working in the Parti
Socialiste offices in southern France. He was also a staffer on Axelle
Lemaire’s campaign which saw her elected as the PS MP for the French overseas
constituency, which stretches from the UK to the North Pole. He is committed to Europe and spoke at
conference on this theme.
I went on to say he asked me two questions that he had
been putting to people he met. There is a possibility that after the referendum
Scotland could leave the United Kingdom. If that is the case then treaties that
are binding to the UK would not be valid for Scotland. This would mean if
Scotland wished to be a member of the European Community it would have to apply
for membership in its own right.
The first question was: would the UK government object
to Scotland joining the EC? The second
question was this: would Spain block Scotland’s membership? Well, as I said, I
never saw the second one coming but Hadleigh explained Spain might black ball
Scotland’s application because it would not want the Scots to set a precedent
for the Catalans or indeed the Basques making a similar application.
My answer to the first question was I did not believe
the UK would block Scotland’s membership of the EU although that would largely
depend on the fall out from the referendum and also what London’s relationship
with Europe was at that time. Likewise in response to the second my answer was
I did not believe Spain would interfere in a political matter that revolved
around the remainder of the UK and a newly independent Scotland. I was wrong.
I did not appreciate what a panic the UK’s decision to
allow Scotland a referendum on independence in 2014 would cause amongst the
Spanish Partido Popular Government in Madrid.
The Basque’s in their regional government elections on
October 21 saw both the two Nationalists parties take huge majorities over PSOE
and the Partido Popular. They want out. Next up on November 25 is the Catalan
regional election which again the nationalists are expected to win. If they do,
they will hold a referendum on independence next year.
Against this scenario Spain’s foreign minister, Jose
Manuel Garcia-Margallo, has been speaking out. He stated the “right to
secession is not recognised in any of the constitutions of the EU” and hence
neither the Basques nor the Catalans can follow Scotland’s lead and try to
leave Spain. He also argues that any such move is against the UN Charter and EU
Treaty.
Spain has nudged the EC Vice President, Viviane
Reding, to back its stance. She is from Luxembourg and so you may have expected
she would back the notion that “small
nations might be
free”. Apparently not: she has confirmed that if Cataluña leaves
the Spanish State it also leaves the EU. Be sure that Madrid has no intention
of letting it back in but like the UK and Scotland eventually Spain might find
it is better to have the Catalans on side rather than out in the cold. For now
hard ball applies.
Spain’s premier Mariano Rajoy has also warned the
Basques during their regional elections they would be isolated outside of Spain
and the EU if they went independent: the same message has been delivered by his
PP henchpeople to the Catalans.
Garcia-Margallo further commented that in the UK
sovereignty resided with Parliament and it was Parliament that had authorised
that the Scottish people could leave the Union if they decided “to navigate
their own course”. He added that a referendum held without the approval of the
British Parliament would have been illegal and have had no effect on Europe. Spain’s
Constitution does not allow for any such referendum.
Now comes the key bit of the Spanish Foreign
Minister’s argument. He says that if Scotland opts for independence then it
will be outside of the EU and have to go to the end of the queue for membership.
To finally achieve that membership it will have to obtain the backing of all
member states. Hence there will be no fast track for Scotland and by
implication Spain would block any attempt for special treatment. In all likelihood
Spain would veto Scotland’s EU membership as it would be terrified that
independent Basque and Catalan states would attempt to follow in its footsteps.
This pitches Spain into the debate over Scottish
independence. Madrid may not have anticipated the angry reaction this will generate
in due course from Edinburgh. Certainly an independent Scotland will not sit
quietly by whilst the Partido Popular interferes in its future status. Also
when the question of Scotland’s future membership of the EU is debated between
now and 2014 expect the SDP to come out fighting against Madrid.
Rajoy and the Partido Popular have a fight on their
hands with the Basques and the Catalans: now they can add the Scots too and
indeed maybe the British Government. Meanwhile Gibraltar is sitting patiently by:
it has been fighting a 300 year old war with its Iberian neighbour and has seen
it all before. If the Spanish State breaks up it will work in the Rock’s
favour. Be sure Gibraltarians will gladly add the Catalans, Basques and now the
Scots to their side in their battle to self-determine their own future.
The Scotland question has been answered but the answer
begs still further questions.
(The above article appeared in the London Progressive
Journal on November 9 2012)
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