The southern most
region of Spain, Andalucía, has always been a socialist fiefdom but the centre
right Partido Popular came very close to toppling PSOE from power in the 2012
regional elections.
Now nearly a year
on the opinion polls put PSOE firmly back in the lead. The socialists account
for 38 per cent of the votes, four more than the PP. This level of support
would not allow PSOE to govern on its own; it would still need the backing of
the far left Izquierda Unida in a coalition – the exact formation that governs
Andalucía now.
These are the
conclusions of a study by Capdea - part of the University of Granada - that
shows the national collapse of support for the Partido Popular in Andalucía as
elsewhere in Spain.
This dramatic
collapse after the November 2011 general election triumph was first brought on
by the PP’s handling of the financial crisis. To that has now been added the
major corruption scandals engulfing the party at the highest levels. However
Capdea took its soundings before the full implications of the Bárcenas
corruption scandal became known. This fiasco surrounds the former treasurer of
the Partido Popular after it became known he had secret overseas bank accounts
and had made under-the-table payments to PP politicians. Without a doubt the
fortunes of the PP have plummeted still further.
The reason the
socialists are back in front has a lot to do with the fall of the PP rather
than any major backing for PSOE whose approval ratings are dire. Indeed where
voters have switched to the left it has been to the far left Communist-led
Izquierda Unida which Capdea says commands 14.2 per cent of the vote.
PSOE now has 38 per
cent and the PP 34.4 per cent. At the March general election PP took 40.6 per
cent of the vote, PSOE 39.5 per cent, so both are down on that level. However
the IU (11.34) has seen a boost to its popularity to 14.2 per cent.
So what’s the bad
news for Spanish democracy? That comes with the major rejection of main stream
politicians, their parties and institutions which is not only dire news for
them but also for the democratic process. If Spaniards reject politicians it
leaves the door open for a modern day Franco figure to emerge promising to
clean up corruption and offering stable, firm government.
Capdea reports that
46 per cent of those people questioned would not vote if an election was held
now: they would abstain is the terminology. Indeed the wide ranging survey
shows the Spanish peoples’ disillusionment across the board with politicians,
their parties and the major institutions. The only two to receive approval
ratings were the universities and the Ombudsman who battle on behalf of the
people.
The overriding
findings are a thumbs down for all politicians. Despite the socialists
returning as the major party in Andalucía and the increase in support for the
IU: 51.9 per cent of people in the region believe the PSOE – IU coalition is
doing poorly as against 23.8 per cent who approve of its efforts. The PP in
opposition is rated by 68.7 per cent as doing badly with only an approval
rating of 14 per cent.
At a national level
both the PP government of Rajoy and the opposition led by PSOE are in serious
negative territory. Seventy-one per cent of Andaluces rate the PP government as
bad or very bad and 72 per cent rate the PSOE opposition of Rubalcaba as bad
also.
In the Bárcenas
scandal Rubalcaba has called for the resignation of Rajoy because he is
seemingly implicated. However the PSOE leader has steered clear of calling for
a general election for one simple reason: he knows that the socialists would
suffer as badly as the governing PP. Spanish voters are rejecting both major
parties leaving a vacuum in the nation’s democracy and that is very bad news
indeed.
BÁRCENAS CASE: It is the centre-left Spanish
national newspaper El País that has made much of the running in the case
revolving around Luis Bárcenas.
El País has published secret
ledgers that appear to show that Bárcenas was behind a slush fund at the PP,
which saw thousands of euros paid out over a number of years to high-ranking
members of the party, including Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. In
addition as part of the investigation into Bárcenas’ role in the Gürtel
kickbacks-for-contracts scandal it has emerged the former PP treasurer had up
to 22 million euros deposited in a Swiss bank account.
The PP insisted it broke off
relations with its former treasurer in 2009 but it’s alleged Bárcenas received
preferential treatment from the party until this January with an office for his
documents at the party’s Madrid headquarters plus secretarial support all paid
for by the PP. He was also being paid a monthly stipend by PP till the end of
2012. If that wasn’t enough the party paid Bárcenas’ social security payments a
decision, says El País that could only have been granted with the blessing of
the prime minister and PP leader, Mariano Rajoy.
(The above article was published in
the London Progressive Journal on February 22 2013).
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