GIBRALTARIANS DEMAND VOTE IN EU IN-OUT REFERENDUM

Gibraltar captured the news headlines in August after the Spanish Government imposed lengthy eight hour queues to enter and leave the Rock as part of its age old campaign to regain sovereignty.  However my article today leaves aside that 300-year-old dispute and instead deals with events being played out in a dusty committee room of the House of Commons. This centre’s on the battle to ensure Gibraltarians are allowed to vote in the Conservative’s EU In-Out Referendum should the Tories be returned to power at the next UK election.

Gibraltar has been a member of the EU since January 1 1973 by virtue of Britain’s membership. However although Gibraltarians are full European citizens they were denied a vote in the European Elections until the 2004 poll. This followed a ten-year legal fight by Gibraltarians which culminated with the European Court ruling that as European Citizens they had the fundamental right to vote in the Euro elections. The UK then added Gibraltar to the South West England Constituency where it sits today.

A cynic may say there are two facts that may colour the Conservative Party’s seeming reluctance to include Gibraltar in its EU In-Out referendum. The first is that in the 2009 European Elections Gibraltar was the only area amongst all the UK Constituencies where the vote for Labour increased.

The second is that Gibraltar is very pro-Europe and indeed the UK’s withdrawal from the EU would be politically and economically disastrous for the Rock. Hence if an In – Out Referendum is held in 2017 it is likely that Gibraltarians will vote massively to continue EU membership. True Gibraltar only has around 20,000 votes but in a tight election that total could help swing the election in favour of staying in the EU.

The whole concept of the 2017 referendum is a bizarre piece of legislation. It is not the Conservative – Lib Dem Government that is proposing it but it comes in the form of a Tory private member’s bill. It would only be enacted if a Conservative Government was returned. It has little to do with the EU but rather is a tactic to fend off UKIP at the next General Election and to keep Tory Euro-sceptics onside.

The job of the current Gibraltar Government is to ensure Gibraltarians are part of any referendum with full voting rights. A general election will have been held in Gibraltar before the 2017 date comes around so it will be for the next Government to deal with the actual referendum and its campaign.

In off the record chats with Gibraltar Government officials I have been told that the UK has given the impression that Gibraltarians would be allowed to vote in the referendum. However there is nothing in writing and the current bill being discussed in Committee at the House of Commons, the Conservative Private Member’s Bill, does not allow for Gibraltarians to vote.

The Conservative Minister for Europe David Lidington had the chance to clear up the matter last week when he addressed the committee stage of the Bill. He said that regardless of whether or not Gibraltar is included in the In-Out referendum on the EU, which has yet to be determined, the UK should consult the Government of Gibraltar to fully understand its views as Gibraltarians would be affected by the decision either way.

Indeed they would Mr Lidington but asking the Gibraltar Government its views is a far cry from allowing Gibraltarians, as British and European citizens, to vote and is simply not acceptable. The suspicion that the Tories intend to deny Gibraltarians the vote is strengthened by the fact that Lidington did not take the opportunity when he had it to state categorically that Gibraltar would be allowed to participate which would have cleared up all doubt.

Instead it has been left to Lidington’s shadow, Labour Europe Minister Emma Reynolds and her team to fight Gibraltar’s corner. Reynolds is worried that the bill as currently drafted fails to appreciate the particular and unique legal and constitutional position of Gibraltar as both a self governing British Overseas Territory and as part of the European Union.

As the Bill is currently drafted, the entitlement to vote in the proposed referendum will be restricted to “persons who, on the date of the referendum, would be entitled to vote as electors at a parliamentary election in any constituency.”

Whilst Gibraltarians are entitled to vote in European Parliamentary elections as part of the South West England Constituency they are self governing and not represented in the UK’s Parliament. The people of Gibraltar would therefore not be able to vote on whether to remain or leave the European Union should a referendum take place. There is also the prospect of Gibraltar having to leave the European Union, alongside the UK, without its people having had a say. Labour has proposed two key amendments: the first to ensure that Gibraltarians as British citizens are included and the second that Gibraltar’s result is declared separately. Will the Tories take note? No sign so far!

For Gibraltar this is a two-fold issue. Gibraltarians, as European Citizens, must be allowed to vote on their future in Europe. Withdrawal would have important negative economic implications for Gibraltar.

Gibraltar’s successful business model has taken the best part of the past forty years to develop as Gibraltarians have matured into their role in Europe. In an address to the Fabian Society in London in April Gibraltar’s socialist Chief Minister, Fabian Picardo, stated: “Our success in tourism, bunkering, telecoms, financial services and gaming as well as the many other sectors of our economic activity depends on our membership of the EU giving us unimpeded access to the Single Market in services and free movement of people and capital.” He added: “Now would be the wrong to time to change one of the few successful economic models in Southern Europe.”

The prospect of Gibraltar’s economy being destroyed by the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, via a referendum in which Gibraltarians as British and European Citizens had no say, would be disastrous for Gibraltar and disastrous for our concept of democracy. It is the duty of the Conservative-led Government and the Conservative Party to ensure that does not happen.

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on September 16 2013 with a version also in the Gibraltar daily, Panorama).

EU URGENTLY NEEDS TO PUT ITS DEMOCRACY IN ORDER

In March I attended a Party of European Socialists conference in Budapest. Although the event dealt with Europe-wide issues Hungary was specifically chosen to show solidarity with the MSzP, the country’s socialist party.

There are fears that democracy is under attack in Hungary from the centre right Fidesz government of Viktor Orbán: this is an issue which has preoccupied the EU for some time.

On my way to a MSzP rally I found myself by accident walking with jackbooted supporters of the far-right Arpad. Four alleged members of this organisation were recently convicted of murdering six Roma gypsies between 2008 and 2009. I detailed the experience in my London Progressive Journal at the time. Fidesz and Arpad are both affronts to our understanding of democracy.

The President of PES is the Bulgarian BSP leader Sergei Stanishev. A general election had just been called in his country in March and he shocked PES delegates in Budapest by asking them to come Bulgaria to act as monitors on polling day. He said that when talking to other EU leaders they were in disbelief when he told them that free and fair elections could not be guaranteed in a member State, his country. My later investigations showed this had been the case in Bulgaria for many years. Even Stanishev concedes he did not do enough to tackle corruption when he was prime minister.

Before I went to Bulgaria as one of those election monitors in May I wrote again in the LPJ begging the question how was this country allowed to join the EU before it could demonstrate it was fully democratic. I have since revisited Bulgaria in June, again documented in a LPJ article and have to report that democracy is in a very fragile state indeed.

As soon as I knew I would be going to Bulgaria for the elections I made contact with Transparency International, which has been working in that country for a number of years. TI set out a plan for free and fair elections before the May poll which were signed up to by some, largely ignored by others even those who signed on the dotted line.

The new Bulgarian Government has undertaken to make changes to the Electoral Legislation and TI has submitted a lengthy report on what practices it wants to see implemented. At the start of this document it states: “The monitoring of the election process conducted by Transparency International - Bulgaria in 2013 identified some recurrent deficits– a dominant share of irregularities in the organisation, unlawful practices of controlling the will of voters and vote-buying, violations of the rules for campaigning that go unpunished.” It then goes on to list five main groupings of actions that it deems to be necessary to bring about democracy:

I. Changes in the electoral legislation to ensure a new approach to compiling the electoral rolls; lowering the strict criteria for candidate registration; ensuring wide and free of charge access of registered candidates to the media; and introducing guarantees for efficient functioning of the electoral administration bodies.

II. Changes in the practices of institutions vested with powers in relation to the election process to bring about a more efficient collaboration among them.

III. Building the capacity of the elections administration at the lowest level where the main deficits in the election process have been identified – namely the election committees at the level of polling stations.

IV. Changes in the media environment to ensure the principle of political pluralism, wide access of registered candidates to media coverage, adequate provision of information and guarantees against monopolistic positioning in the media market.

V. Ensuring consensus among the political parties regarding the actual implementation of measures against unlawful practices in the election process. This consensus should be part of a larger-scale transformation in the way political parties function, thus ensuring that the Bulgarian political parties truly represent the interests of their voters, and genuinely abide by the established democratic standards thus contributing to these standards being followed in the overall political life of the country.

So it is quite clear that Bulgarian standards of democracy do not meet EU norms. There are real fears that Hungary will fail too when it comes to its own general election next year. They are not alone: there are other New Europe countries in the same plight.

In Spain there is a widespread collapse in the trust in democracy, largely brought about by political corruption. You can add Greece and Portugal to that list who both scored ahead of Spain in a TI corruption survey. Other EU States from Old Europe can probably identify similar voter concerns even if the voting will be free and fair.

Nor is this just a matter of internal concern for each of the member States of the EU. Next May Europeans will go to the polls to elect a European Parliament. Bulgaria, Hungary and other nations where there are serious concerns over the electoral process will participate. Hence some MEPs taking their seats in the European Chamber may be there, not because the people elected them freely and fairly but because the vote was rigged. Indeed that will almost certainly be the case. The European Parliament will be devalued if it cannot be the true voice of the people of Europe – and in those circumstances it can’t. So the EU cannot turn a blind eye and pretend this isn’t happening or doesn’t matter.

Let me quote from the EU itself. It grandly states: “The European Union believes that democracy and human rights are universal values that should be vigorously promoted around the world. They are integral to effective work on poverty alleviation and conflict prevention and resolution, in addition to being valuable bulwarks against terrorism. Having come into force on 1 January 2007, the Europeam Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights is the concrete expression of the EU's intention to integrate the promotion of democracy and human rights into all of its external policies.”

A fine ideal. However might I suggest that the EU starts off by integrating “the promotion of democracy and human rights” in its own member States before it worries about taking the message to the world. As things stand elections in many parts of the EU are not free and fair: so it does not have the moral right to lecture anyone.

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on August 10 2013).

COLLAPSE IN SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY

One-off opinion polls can be dismissed: but when various polls from different sources set a trend we have to look at them very seriously indeed. Over the past months I have written a number of articles for the London Progressive Journal reflecting the collapse in Spain in the people’s trust in their politicians, the political parties and now most worrying of all in democracy itself.

Several weeks ago Transparency International in a survey reported 86 per cent of Spaniards believed their politicians to be corrupt. Now the latest poll from Egopa covering Andalucía suggests they are fast giving up on democracy too. If you remove democracy, what do you have left: a dictatorship?

The Egopa study carried out by a division of the University of Granada showed that the people of Andalucía take a negative view of politics. Indeed in July 74.5 per cent voiced a negative view of politicians and their parties, the highest level since the surveys began in 2007. It is also very close to the Transparency International findings for all of Spain.

The most serious problem is that the disenchantment on the part of the public with their politicians has now transferred to a disapproval of how democracy itself functions. Of those questioned 83 per cent say they had little or no satisfaction with the functioning of democracy, a level that has grown significantly since 2008 when the figures was just 35 per cent.

However the positive news for PSOE is that if elections were held now in Andalucía, which has its own regional government, then the socialist party would win with 36 per cent of the votes. This gives them a seven point lead over the centre-right Partido Popular, which has been rejected by voters due to their handling of the country’s economy and the fallout from the Bárcenas corruption scandal. The PP would now take just 29 per cent of the votes with the far left Izquierda Unida the biggest gainers riding high on 18.7 per cent.

The fall of grace of the PP has been dramatic down to just 29 per cent from a survey level of 48.9 per cent in the summer of 2011. The PSOE vote is slightly up over the two year period from 34.3 per cent. Far left Izquierda Unida has tripled its support over the same period as has the UPyD from to 6.7 per cent from 2.3.

The “political sympathy” level for the IU now exceeds that for the PP (15.8 per cent against 13.6) but both are behind PSOE on 29.5.

If an election was held now only 50.7 per cent of people in Andalucía would bother to vote, the lowest level since 1982. The performance of the PSOE – IU Andalucía government is rated as bad or very bad by 58 per cent of Andaluces, which again is the highest level since these surveys were started in 2007. So when you look deeply at the support figures for the parties you seen they are frighteningly low: the fact is Spaniards have turned their backs on all politicians be they right, left or centre.

This disillusionment with politicians and democracy is a very toxic mix indeed. As we currently see there is a Spanish Government largely out of control listening to nobody including its own people and party.

The current crisis between the Spanish Government and Gibraltar is not perceived by Spaniards as being over the sovereignty of the territory but as a frantic attempt by Madrid to distract attention away from the Bárcenas corruption scandal than envelopes the Partido Popular and the Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

Bárcenas was the PP treasurer with millions stashed away in secret bank accounts abroad. Rajoy, who supported his treasurer, is mired in the perception of corruption. Bárcenas insists he made him and other PP top politicians illicit payments, and as a result because he refuses to resign the prime minister is isolated by the other parties in Parliament.

In a Spain of record high unemployment, a severe economic crisis, thousand on thousand losing their homes but still owing the banks for their mortgages, of countless homeless, the need for communal kitchens to feed hungry men, women and children, food banks for disadvantaged families and used clothing for those who have nothing, Spaniards are not going to stand by and let their corrupt politicians get away with it.

They see the attempts by Rajoy and his Foreign Minister Margallo to confront Gibraltar as a cheap attempt to divert their attention. As one Spanish newspaper asked on Saturday: do they think we are stupid? No Spaniards are not: but they are very angry indeed and their politicians will pay the price. The question is: if democracy goes, what then?

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on August 6 2013 with other versions in various publications)

IT’S FRANCO’S HEART THAT BEATS IN MADRID

No Gibraltarian and come to that anybody living in the real world will believe the confrontations at sea last week over the reef laying and the six hour car queues to leave Gibraltar at the weekend were anything but linked. Thanks to the world media from the BBC to Fox News much of the rest of the world now knows that too. Even Britain’s Foreign Secretary, William Hague, and the Foreign Office issued urgent protests to Madrid.

The confrontation started last Wednesday when a tug was laying concrete blocks in British Gibraltar Territorial Waters between the North Mole and the runway. Nor was this action a surprise because the creation of reefs in different parts of British Gibraltar Territorial Waters, as part of Gibraltar’s marine protection strategy, was announced when the Government published the fishing report. These reefs will increase biodiversity and provide refuge for many marine species.

This was not some whacky idea dreamed up by Environment Minister Dr John Cortes over a plate of calamari but approved science. So whilst the Andalucía Government accuses Gibraltar of potentially damaging the environment it has emerged that Sevilla has created 480 square kms of exactly the same reef structures off its own coastline – a coastline that it shares with Gibraltar.

So why has Andalucía done this? It has installed 25 artificial reefs over the period 1989 to 2011to protect the marine environment and promote traditional fishing methods. These being more selective allow the regeneration of fishing resources and to ensure rational exploitation.

The whole scheme has cost 12 million euros and whilst Andalucía has paid 25 per cent of the cost the balance has come from EU fisheries funds – in other words EU tax payers throughout the community.

Andalucía has installed these reefs which contribute to the protection of the coastal zones and some of these are of high biological interest just as Gibraltar’s waters are. Most importantly they are also a defence against overfishing.

The reefs prevent the use of drag nets which are not authorized and their installation preserves the ecological value of the sites. It also promotes the breeding of many species of interest to fishermen. Once the number of these fish increases it is possible for them to be caught in a sustainable manner.

Perhaps somebody needs to sit down and explain all of this to the owner of the “Divina Providencia”, which fishes illegally in Gibraltar’s waters and the neighbouring La Línea and Algeciras fishing communities. The Andalucía Government, which is a socialist and far left coalition, should be asking itself a lot of uncomfortable questions on this issue too.

All of that being so the actions of the Guardia Civil at sea last Wednesday and Thursday and also of Spain in protesting against Gibraltar’s reef laying had nothing to do with the environment and everything to do with their claim over Gibraltar’s waters. Sovereignty in other words. Yet Gibraltarians and indeed the UK Government knew that anyway.

Hence we move on to Friday and the weekend when Spain again shot itself in the foot by making Gibraltarians, Spaniards, EU citizens and other nationals queue in their cars in the blistering heat for up to seven hours to cross the border in to La Línea.

Whatever argument Spain may have about Gibraltar protecting the environment, and on the face of it there is none, all the world has now seen the true face of the Partido Popular Government in Madrid. Nobody believes the queues had anything to do with the search for contraband but everything to do with Gibraltar having stood up for its internationally recognised rights. Its territorial waters are recognised by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea so it is Spain and not Gibraltar that is the law breaker.

Spain has been shamed, Gibraltar’s environment is better protected and Gibraltar moves on whilst Madrid shows that it is Franco’s heart that that provides the beat of Rajoy’s Government.

(Photograph: Gibraltar’s Environment and Health Minister, Dr John Cortes, and Culture – Sports Minister Steven Linares hand out water to queuing motorists waiting to enter Spain on Saturday)

(The above article was published in the London Progressive Journal on July 29 2013).

GIBRALTAR: A ROCK OF DEMOCRATIC STABILITY AS SOME NATIONS BECOME UNGOVERNABLE

A very notable event happened on the fourth of July. Apart from being Independence Day in the USA it was the date of a by-election in Gibraltar. The election was free and fair, the candidates and their parties behaved within the norms of electoral law – and here’s the big shock, the winning party, the GSLP, happened to be the socialist party in a coalition Government and increased its popularity with the voters.

Whilst in Old Europe we take free and fair elections for granted such a situation does not even hold true within the entire EU. Likewise whilst the majority of Old Europe sees its political parties act within the electoral norms there are other countries in the EU where vote rigging and buying are the norms instead. And here’s the real shock: Gibraltar has a government party entering mid-term which is more popular now with voters than when it was elected. That situation is very unique in Europe.

So whilst democracy is seemingly safe in Gibraltar there are worrying signs elsewhere that suggest that some countries may be becoming ungovernable or are indeed already there.

Let us look at Egypt for example when President Mohammed Morsi has been deposed from power in a ‘peaceful’ army coup, ‘peaceful’ being a relative term here. There may be many reasons why Morsi was not the man for the job or his party the one to unite Egypt. However the fact is he was elected to the post of president in the country’s first fair and free elections in our life time. The people of Egypt had every right to peacefully protest against his actions and policies: but did the army have the right to remove him from power? If we believe in democracy surely that is the job of the electorate at the next election.

In Bulgaria the popularist GERB government resigned in February after violent street protests over a hike in electricity prices which few could afford and the economic state of the EU’s poorest country. In the May general election GERB, which has links to organized crime and is notorious for vote rigging, was returned as the largest party but its share of the vote collapsed. It could not govern on its own so the socialist BSP which came second joined a coalition to keep GERB out. However to do so it had to pact with the Movement for Rights and Freedoms and the nationalist party ATAKA to rule. ATAKA is anti Turkish and anti Roma whilst the MRF speaks for both: the MRF also has a history of vote rigging.

Some initial mistakes by the new prime minister brought the same protestors out on to the streets again and even the president has now suggested that new elections will have to be called. If so where does Bulgaria go from here? Do the protestors want GERB back? Certainly not. Do they want a socialist government, possibly, but even the BSP has in the past had links with its communist roots, oligarchs and criminals. Do they want the MRF or ATAKA to govern? Hardly. So how do you run a country when the rejected options are the most voted for parties even if vote rigging and buying is rife? The current anti-GERB coalition is far from perfect but it is realpolitik like it or not.

In Spain Transparency International reports that 86 per cent of Spaniards believe their politicians are corrupt as Rajoy wobbles under the sleaze accusations of Bárcenas. The political and summer heat is getting much hotter for the Partido Popular Prime Minister.

In a country where over 26 per cent of people are jobless, where if you are young you a more likely to be on the dole than in work, where thousands have lost their homes and are still deep in debit, where the economic crisis stumbles from bad to worse then for how long are people going to stand idly by whilst they are ruled by crooks. My guess is for not long at all and social upheaval will soon be upon Spain as it is in Turkey and has been in Greece.

Italy and Portugal could well be next.

Gibraltar was already remarkable in that Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus and people of other religions and none live side by side in perfect harmony in a world where that is far from the norm. In addition to that distinction Gibraltarians can get on with their lives safe in the knowledge they live in a stable democracy, as solid as their Rock.

However there are warnings for Gibraltar’s politicians and voters in what is happening around the world. The warning to its politicians is that voters will not accept governments that govern for themselves and not the people. The warning to its voters is to treasure the open, free and fair democracy they enjoy and protect it with all their might – because it is rarer and more fragile than they may think.

(Photograph: Albert Isola, the GSLP’s successful by-election candidate).

(The above article was published in the London Progressive Journal on July 19, 2013 and a version appeared in Panorama on July 17, 2013)

SPANIARDS BELIEVE THEIR POLITICAL PARTIES ARE CORRUPT

The article based on the findings from Transparency International on its Global corruption Barometer was squeezed in at the bottom of the Spanish newspaper. This isn’t because the editor thought it unimportant it is just that the reports on the various corruption cases engulfing the centre right Partido Popular left little space.

Likewise there just isn’t space in this article to even given an overview of such cases as “Gürtel” and “Bárcenas”, which lead to the very top of the governing PP. However I will mention that Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is pretending the “Bárcenas” case, revolving around former PP treasurer Luis Bárcenas and his numerous secret accounts abroad, simply did not happen. This despite Rajoy possibly being a beneficiary of part of these funds and refusing to sack Bárcenas when he took over from José María Aznar. Meanwhile Aznar has offered to come back and save the nation from the crisis and Rajoy even though Bárcenas was his treasurer and the Aznar links to this corruption case go very deep indeed. The PP now has major figures such as Esperanza Aguirre calling on Rajoy to recognise the irregularities and to undertake an internal party reform – “because Spain needs a clean PP”. Some hope.

Aguirre was speaking inside the PP’s regional executive meeting in Madrid. Outside were some 500 protestors calling for Rajoy to resign. There were cries of “PP, thieves, we want resignations” and “Rajoy and Cospedal, to Soto del Real”, Cospedal is the secretary general of the PP and president of Castilla-La Mancha regional government: the Soto del Real a prison where Bárcenas is being held.

So what does the Spanish man and woman on the street make of all this? Not a lot: indeed the majority view political corruption as being one of the major problems facing Spain.

In the CIS opinion polls in 2013 corruption has been at either number two or three in the preoccupations of Spaniards. This has been borne out by the Transparency International Global Barometer with 114,000 people being questioned in 107 countries.

According to Transparency International Spain is one of the countries where corruption is perceived to be “a very serious problem”. Spain scores 4.5 out of 5 on the corruption rating whereas the international average is 4.1. Spain is also third amongst European countries where corruption is a major concern to citizens after Greece and Portugal.

Nor has the corruption stopped: indeed Spaniards believe it has grown since 2011. Two out of three Spaniards questioned were indignant over the corruption levels (the famous “Los Indignados” of street protests) which is far higher than the international average of 53 per cent.

Spaniards are in no doubt of where the corruption lies. A staggering 83 per cent point to the political parties followed closely by Parliament itself. In contrast the worldwide view is that the major focuses of corruption are the police and civil servants – public employees and not politicians.

The problem for Spain’s political parties is that it is not just the Partido Popular that is immersed in sleaze. The opposition socialist PSOE, which has its own numerous corruption cases, is viewed in a similar light. Hence PSOE’s reluctance to try and force the PP to call an election over the Bárcenas scandal. The socialists have called on Rajoy to resign but for the PP to stay in government.

One party to be viewed favourably is Izquierda Unida which has been picking up votes largely at the expense of PSOE. However even the IU’s hands are not clean with recent corruption scandals in two small municipalities on the Costa del Sol – Casares and Manilva – which have in recent years seen the far left party in control of their respective town halls.

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on July 11 2013 with versions in other publications). 

BULGARIAN DEMOCRACY: IN A VERY DELICATE STATE

 

In April and May I wrote several articles for the London Progressive Journal on the political situation in Bulgaria. These were before and just after that country’s general election. The first articles were largely based on reports by Transparency International: the latter about my experiences as an observer at the elections. This article comes after I have re-visited Bulgaria to find its democracy in a very delicate state indeed.

Just before I left I wrote an article for the Gibraltar newspaper ‘Panorama’ in which I stated how much I was looking forward to this visit. The last had been tense to say the least: now with the BSP, Bulgaria’s socialists, the largest party in the new government I was looking forward to attending the Party of European Socialists Council which was held last weekend. I had also allowed time to see more of the country and to visit friends made during the elections.

However my image of a Bulgaria now at peace with itself was far from accurate. There seemed to more police around than usual when we arrived on the Tuesday night. On the Thursday our friends in Kyustendil where we were staying told us of protests in Sofia and in local towns. By the time we came back to Sofia for the PES Council on Friday we had been summoned to a security meeting and the event was held amidst tight security.

To wind back in time the populist GERB government had been brought down in February by angry, violent street demonstrations. The centre right party was accused of abuses of democracy, links to organised crime, election rigging, creating an economic crisis whilst allowing electricity prices to rise, which a country with 50 per cent of its population in extreme poverty, could ill afford.

After the May 12 election GERB was still the largest party but its number of MPs had collapsed and no other elected party would pact with it. Hence the second placed BSP, which was the only party to increase its vote and number of MPs, formed a coalition with the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, a member of Liberal International. Together they have 120 of the 240 seats in Parliament and hence rely on the support of the nationalist party ATAKA to rule. However ATAKA is anti Turkish and anti Roma whilst the MRF speaks for both. It was a pact to restore a functioning democracy amongst parties who largely had nothing in common. Whether it is a marriage made in heaven or hell remains to be seen currently it is in purgatory.

On May 29 former finance minister Plamen Oresharski, an up to now respected figure, was appointed Prime Minister. He had the support of the BSP and the other two parties. GERB has largely boycotted parliament since they were ousted from power making a mockery of the elected chamber. ATAKA, who previously supported GERB in government, have also been absent on occasions.

At a time when Bulgaria needed peace and stability Oresharski made a number of major political blunders. There are now street protests in Sofia and wider Bulgaria over the inclusion of the MRF in the new coalition and the decision of Oresharski to appoint MRF MP Delyan Peevski, a controversial media mogul who is linked to a corruption scandal, as head of the State intelligence agency, DANS. This latter decision was quickly revoked and acknowledged as a mistake but the damage was done.

A regional governor from the MRF, Ventsislav Kaymakanov, has been appointed in Plovdiv, Bulgaria’s second city, which has caused more street protests. Dozens of people have also gathered in front of the building of the district administration in the city of Blagoevgrad to protest against the appointment of Musa Palev as district governor. These Turkish appointments have been made in areas where virtually no Turks live.

The MRF is a party whose main goals are the interests of the Muslims and its principal electorate are the minority groups Turks, Roma, Muslim Bulgarians and Bulgarian Turks in Turkey. The MRF is widely distrusted, has been accused of major election abuses alongside those of GERB and its ethnic and religious orientation breaks article 11 of the Constitution of Bulgaria.

Many of those Bulgarians who wanted a new dawn after the May 12 elections are in despair that the MRF are in government and suspect them of pulling many strings in their interests to keep the coalition in power.

If you read one English on-line Bulgarian newspaper, which obviously supports GERB, you would be led to believe that Sofia and wider Bulgaria is witnessing street riots of the same intensity as those that drove GERB from power. There are no such protests. However GERB wants people to believe the country is in ferment and they are being called back to save the nation.

In contrast if you scan the BBC or other reputable websites for news you will find little or nothing of the unrest – but protests there are.

I watched a lengthy one pass last Friday evening which went on for some 40 minutes through the main streets of Sofia. It was noisy but so peaceful that police only escorted it to show the way. These were not GERB supporters but largely young people who want a new start for their country.

These people feel let down by the new government that includes the MRF and which has made serious errors from day one. It is hard for them to accept that the BSP, to be pragmatic and to bring stability to Bulgaria, have to pact with this party as well as ATAKA that are an anathema to the majority of ordinary people. The BSP itself is in turmoil especially over the original appointment of Delyan Peevski with resignations and a vote of confidence which BSP Leader and PES President Sergei Stanishev won. It has to be said many PES leaders from around Europe, whilst fully supportive of the BSP and Stanishev, share many of the protestors’ legitimate concerns. Rarely in recent years have socialist principals been so keen tested.

The unpalatable alternative is fresh elections with the likelihood that GERB would again seize power with the inevitable decline of Bulgaria into an authoritarian, corrupt State. It is an unholy mess and that is why I say democracy in Bulgaria is in a very delicate state indeed.

By the by Transparency International in Bulgaria is producing a report on the May elections with recommendations for improving the electoral process for the future. Once that document is produced I will bring you its findings – in English.

(The above article was published in the London Progressive Journal on June 28 2013)

BULGARIA ELECTIONS: WIDESPREAD ABUSE BUT HOPE

I set off to Bulgaria after being selected by the Party of European Socialists to be part of the 100 plus team from all across the EU to monitor the General Election on Sunday. The president of PES, Sergei Stanishev, who is a former prime minister of Bulgaria and leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party, had appealed for observers because of the very real fears of vote manipulation and vote buying by the GERB party that resigned from government after violent mass street protests against austerity measures, rising electricity prices and corruption in February.

The OSCE (Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights) also sent around 200 observers. Other groups such as Transparency International had sent up an election abuse monitoring unit and had observers at polling stations. The presence of these observers made major news headlines in Bulgaria. We were all officially registered with the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry and had stamped passes that granted us major powers within the polling stations.

I finally arrived in Sofia late Friday afternoon and meet up with other arrivals from France, Brussels, Greece and Holland for the coach trip to our hotel. We were greeted by Nikola Mitov who is the BSP’s director of international affairs.

On Saturday the work began. There was a briefing session for English speaking observers with a detailed talk on the voting law, polling station procedures with numerous forms to be filled in. If anybody enters the polling station with a gun we have to note it on the form!

Around 13.00 I headed off to Kyunstendil, about 90 kms from Sofia with a snow covered mountain backdrop. My driver – interpreter Georgi stopped at the BSP party headquarters at Dupritsa which was in the same 100km wide constituency. We had lunch with the number two candidate, Ivan Ibrishimov who on Sunday was elected as the BSP’s second MP, the local party chairman Stanislav Pavlov, who is also number four on the list plus some activists.

As we had lunch news came in that 350,000 fake ballot papers had been discovered by police after a raid on a printing works owned by a GERB councillor. The councillor told the media it was not anything to worry about! On to Kyunstendil where we met the district chairman and former mayor Valentine Volvo and were briefed on polling day strategy.

The Roma gypsies are the most likely to sell their votes for cash or beer and food. One scam is a gypsy gang leader sits in a car near the polling station. He already has a ballot paper stamped with the first of the two stamps a legal vote requires. A Roma comes by takes the ballot paper from him which is already marked. He then presents his identity card, receives another stamped ballot paper which when in the polling booth he puts in his pocket and deposits the voting paper he was given into the box after it has received the second stamp. He then takes his ballot paper out to the gang leader, who takes it from him, fills it in and gives it to the next bought voter. Georgi says this is called the Indian Scam but nobody could tell me why. It is possible these illegal blank votes were for the vote buying operation.

So to polling day and back to Dupritsa. The day didn’t get off well with the local election commission advising it had changed the supervising teams and hence many wouldn’t have documentation. Sent an urgent email to Transparency International who started an investigation. News came in that two polling station in a complex of nine had refused to give the second stamp on the ballot papers which made them invalid. We went to investigate but of course once we arrived and showed our official papers the voting procedures were fully adhered to.

However there were three Roma polling stations at the same school complex and there the atmosphere was very different. There were groups of Roma supporting the former ruling party GERB openly intimidating those coming to vote in the corridor. They bragged to Georgi they could vote when and how they wanted acting in an aggressive manner when we monitored what was going on. There was no obvious sign of vote buying and nothing you could point out to officials so we went back several times to make the point we were hadn’t been scared off and we were watching.

Then a curious case. A report that 60 ballots had been accepted but not recorded at a school polling station. By the time we arrived so too had officials from the commission. The number was in fact 47 and the chairwoman said she had put a youth in charge of the polling who apparently did not realize you had to cross off voters names and get them to sign. The chairwoman argued it was an unfortunate mistake. The ballots couldn’t be taken out of the box as nobody knew which they were so when the final tally was completed after the polls closed there would be 47 votes too many. I shall return to this is a moment

Whilst we were there a man on crutches complained to us that none of the three polling stations at this complex would give him a ballot paper. He was told to enter the polling room with us at which point he was promptly given a ballot paper; they didn’t even make a show of searching for his name: then all the procedures were correctly followed. Later the Election Commission ruled the chairwoman had deliberately added the 47 votes for GERB and she was sanctioned.

There were no signs of vote buying at the Roma centres but by mid-afternoon the news reports told of three men having been arrested for committing the crime that day. Also by late afternoon when Roma usually crowded their polling stations they were empty with reports they simply had not turned out. TV stated that Turkish Bulgarians who normally flood across the border from Turkey to support Ataka (the Islam Party whose name translates as Attack and according to electoral law should be illegal) had seemingly not travelled either. Something was clearly in play here. Feedback from the local Roma said they’d be threatened by GERB so they stayed at home.

In the Kyunstendil constituency there were around 100 cases of voting abuse by GERB.  In one polling station the GERB observer smashed the photocopying machine preventing the copying of the end of poll protocol showing the result. He only delayed but couldn’t prevent the inevitable. As voters swung to the BSP and they took two of the four seats, up one, these abuses will not be contested. We didn’t meet sitting BSP MP Maya Manolova as after the polls closed rioting broke out in Sofia and she was ordered to the capital.

Obviously my experiences were just a snap shot of the election process across Bulgaria. Was the polling process carried out in a manner that we would find acceptable: no it wasn´t. However it was clear the chairpersons of the polling station committees were very concerned at our presence: one even protesting that everything she did was in order. Indeed when we were present everything was in order but it is clear in some cases there had been irregularities before we arrived and they may have started again as soon as we left. It is important though to state that probably because of the international observers these elections were far more free and fair than in the past. There is hope now that as GERB is unlikely to continue in government further advances can be made in establishing free and fair elections. At the next election it is vital the observers are allowed to return and in even greater numbers because it is quite clear the fact the world was watching did have a beneficial impact on this troubled democracy.

Photo: l to r: Georgi, Dr Ivan Ibrishimov (now BSP MP), David Eade, Stanislav Pavlov and activist.

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on May 14 2013 with a version in the New People on May 17 2013)

SPANIARDS FALLS OUT OF LOVE THEIR ROYALS

Since the transition from the Franco dictatorship to full democracy the Spanish Royal Family have been held in general high regard by the people of Spain. Indeed many would argue that the transition would not have taken place but for King Juan Carlos. Republicans of course take a very different view of things but, for now, that is by the by.

However since the financial crisis started there has been a fall in the support for the Royal Household. This is partly explained with the major loss of confidence in Spain’s institutions but also by the King seemingly being totally of out touch with the problems faced by the average Spaniard. Add to that the corruption scandal surrounding Iñaki Urdangarin, the King’s son-in-law which implicates his wife, the Infanta Cristina, and the Royal Family is in major trouble.

This is reflected in the latest CIS opinion poll that shows the monarchy has an approval rating of just 3.68 on a scale of ten. The last time the Spanish people were asked for their valuation of the Royal Family was in October 2011 when they notched up 4.89, so they have lost 1.2 points since the various scandals hit. Out on the streets there have been major demonstrations demanding an elected head of State instead of a monarch.

Politicians have rallied to the Royals support claiming they have only lost favour only because of the collapse in the Spanish people’s trust in their institutions. When that comes back, they argue, so will their love of the King and his family. They fear that if the Royal family falls then so will Spain as we know it. They are right but this is also a case of the blind leading the blind because the politicians also seem not to be able to comprehend just how low they have sunk in the public’s estimation. Indeed if the Spanish are giving a major thumbs down to the Royals they are raising the middle finger to the politicos.

This is shown in the same CIS opinion poll which brings good news and bad news for the centre right Partido Popular. If an election was held now the PP would win with 34 per cent of the vote whilst socialist PSOE has just 28.2 per cent. Far left Izquierda Unida would come third with the UPyD fourth on 9.4 and 7.4 respectively.

However the real story is the collapse of support for the two main parties since the November 2011 elections. The PP governing amidst a worsening economic crisis and with the Bárcenas corruption scandal ringing in its ears has lost 10.4 support. PSOE has not been able to capitalise on Rajoy’s woes and has seen its support fall by a further six per cent. Only the minor parties such as the IU and UPyD have seen their popularity amongst voters gradually grow.

PSOE’s leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba is more popular than Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy but that is not saying a lot. Rubalcaba has an approval rating of 3 out of 10 down from 3.4 whilst Rajoy has fallen from 2.81 to 2.44.

The worrying factor is Spaniards do not trust the monarchy, the government, the banks and the politicians along with the institutions that surround them so who will they put their trust in? The answer, as I have stated here before from previous surveys, is the military and the security services and that is even more worrying still.

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on May 8 2013).