COLLAPSE IN SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY

One-off opinion polls can be dismissed: but when various polls from different sources set a trend we have to look at them very seriously indeed. Over the past months I have written a number of articles for the London Progressive Journal reflecting the collapse in Spain in the people’s trust in their politicians, the political parties and now most worrying of all in democracy itself.

Several weeks ago Transparency International in a survey reported 86 per cent of Spaniards believed their politicians to be corrupt. Now the latest poll from Egopa covering Andalucía suggests they are fast giving up on democracy too. If you remove democracy, what do you have left: a dictatorship?

The Egopa study carried out by a division of the University of Granada showed that the people of Andalucía take a negative view of politics. Indeed in July 74.5 per cent voiced a negative view of politicians and their parties, the highest level since the surveys began in 2007. It is also very close to the Transparency International findings for all of Spain.

The most serious problem is that the disenchantment on the part of the public with their politicians has now transferred to a disapproval of how democracy itself functions. Of those questioned 83 per cent say they had little or no satisfaction with the functioning of democracy, a level that has grown significantly since 2008 when the figures was just 35 per cent.

However the positive news for PSOE is that if elections were held now in Andalucía, which has its own regional government, then the socialist party would win with 36 per cent of the votes. This gives them a seven point lead over the centre-right Partido Popular, which has been rejected by voters due to their handling of the country’s economy and the fallout from the Bárcenas corruption scandal. The PP would now take just 29 per cent of the votes with the far left Izquierda Unida the biggest gainers riding high on 18.7 per cent.

The fall of grace of the PP has been dramatic down to just 29 per cent from a survey level of 48.9 per cent in the summer of 2011. The PSOE vote is slightly up over the two year period from 34.3 per cent. Far left Izquierda Unida has tripled its support over the same period as has the UPyD from to 6.7 per cent from 2.3.

The “political sympathy” level for the IU now exceeds that for the PP (15.8 per cent against 13.6) but both are behind PSOE on 29.5.

If an election was held now only 50.7 per cent of people in Andalucía would bother to vote, the lowest level since 1982. The performance of the PSOE – IU Andalucía government is rated as bad or very bad by 58 per cent of Andaluces, which again is the highest level since these surveys were started in 2007. So when you look deeply at the support figures for the parties you seen they are frighteningly low: the fact is Spaniards have turned their backs on all politicians be they right, left or centre.

This disillusionment with politicians and democracy is a very toxic mix indeed. As we currently see there is a Spanish Government largely out of control listening to nobody including its own people and party.

The current crisis between the Spanish Government and Gibraltar is not perceived by Spaniards as being over the sovereignty of the territory but as a frantic attempt by Madrid to distract attention away from the Bárcenas corruption scandal than envelopes the Partido Popular and the Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

Bárcenas was the PP treasurer with millions stashed away in secret bank accounts abroad. Rajoy, who supported his treasurer, is mired in the perception of corruption. Bárcenas insists he made him and other PP top politicians illicit payments, and as a result because he refuses to resign the prime minister is isolated by the other parties in Parliament.

In a Spain of record high unemployment, a severe economic crisis, thousand on thousand losing their homes but still owing the banks for their mortgages, of countless homeless, the need for communal kitchens to feed hungry men, women and children, food banks for disadvantaged families and used clothing for those who have nothing, Spaniards are not going to stand by and let their corrupt politicians get away with it.

They see the attempts by Rajoy and his Foreign Minister Margallo to confront Gibraltar as a cheap attempt to divert their attention. As one Spanish newspaper asked on Saturday: do they think we are stupid? No Spaniards are not: but they are very angry indeed and their politicians will pay the price. The question is: if democracy goes, what then?

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on August 6 2013 with other versions in various publications)

SPANIARDS FALLS OUT OF LOVE THEIR ROYALS

Since the transition from the Franco dictatorship to full democracy the Spanish Royal Family have been held in general high regard by the people of Spain. Indeed many would argue that the transition would not have taken place but for King Juan Carlos. Republicans of course take a very different view of things but, for now, that is by the by.

However since the financial crisis started there has been a fall in the support for the Royal Household. This is partly explained with the major loss of confidence in Spain’s institutions but also by the King seemingly being totally of out touch with the problems faced by the average Spaniard. Add to that the corruption scandal surrounding Iñaki Urdangarin, the King’s son-in-law which implicates his wife, the Infanta Cristina, and the Royal Family is in major trouble.

This is reflected in the latest CIS opinion poll that shows the monarchy has an approval rating of just 3.68 on a scale of ten. The last time the Spanish people were asked for their valuation of the Royal Family was in October 2011 when they notched up 4.89, so they have lost 1.2 points since the various scandals hit. Out on the streets there have been major demonstrations demanding an elected head of State instead of a monarch.

Politicians have rallied to the Royals support claiming they have only lost favour only because of the collapse in the Spanish people’s trust in their institutions. When that comes back, they argue, so will their love of the King and his family. They fear that if the Royal family falls then so will Spain as we know it. They are right but this is also a case of the blind leading the blind because the politicians also seem not to be able to comprehend just how low they have sunk in the public’s estimation. Indeed if the Spanish are giving a major thumbs down to the Royals they are raising the middle finger to the politicos.

This is shown in the same CIS opinion poll which brings good news and bad news for the centre right Partido Popular. If an election was held now the PP would win with 34 per cent of the vote whilst socialist PSOE has just 28.2 per cent. Far left Izquierda Unida would come third with the UPyD fourth on 9.4 and 7.4 respectively.

However the real story is the collapse of support for the two main parties since the November 2011 elections. The PP governing amidst a worsening economic crisis and with the Bárcenas corruption scandal ringing in its ears has lost 10.4 support. PSOE has not been able to capitalise on Rajoy’s woes and has seen its support fall by a further six per cent. Only the minor parties such as the IU and UPyD have seen their popularity amongst voters gradually grow.

PSOE’s leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba is more popular than Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy but that is not saying a lot. Rubalcaba has an approval rating of 3 out of 10 down from 3.4 whilst Rajoy has fallen from 2.81 to 2.44.

The worrying factor is Spaniards do not trust the monarchy, the government, the banks and the politicians along with the institutions that surround them so who will they put their trust in? The answer, as I have stated here before from previous surveys, is the military and the security services and that is even more worrying still.

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on May 8 2013).

GOOD NEWS FOR LEFT IN ANDALUCIA, BAD NEWS FOR DEMOCRACY IN SPAIN

The southern most region of Spain, Andalucía, has always been a socialist fiefdom but the centre right Partido Popular came very close to toppling PSOE from power in the 2012 regional elections.

Now nearly a year on the opinion polls put PSOE firmly back in the lead. The socialists account for 38 per cent of the votes, four more than the PP. This level of support would not allow PSOE to govern on its own; it would still need the backing of the far left Izquierda Unida in a coalition – the exact formation that governs Andalucía now.

These are the conclusions of a study by Capdea - part of the University of Granada - that shows the national collapse of support for the Partido Popular in Andalucía as elsewhere in Spain.

This dramatic collapse after the November 2011 general election triumph was first brought on by the PP’s handling of the financial crisis. To that has now been added the major corruption scandals engulfing the party at the highest levels. However Capdea took its soundings before the full implications of the Bárcenas corruption scandal became known. This fiasco surrounds the former treasurer of the Partido Popular after it became known he had secret overseas bank accounts and had made under-the-table payments to PP politicians. Without a doubt the fortunes of the PP have plummeted still further.

The reason the socialists are back in front has a lot to do with the fall of the PP rather than any major backing for PSOE whose approval ratings are dire. Indeed where voters have switched to the left it has been to the far left Communist-led Izquierda Unida which Capdea says commands 14.2 per cent of the vote.

PSOE now has 38 per cent and the PP 34.4 per cent. At the March general election PP took 40.6 per cent of the vote, PSOE 39.5 per cent, so both are down on that level. However the IU (11.34) has seen a boost to its popularity to 14.2 per cent.

So what’s the bad news for Spanish democracy? That comes with the major rejection of main stream politicians, their parties and institutions which is not only dire news for them but also for the democratic process. If Spaniards reject politicians it leaves the door open for a modern day Franco figure to emerge promising to clean up corruption and offering stable, firm government.

Capdea reports that 46 per cent of those people questioned would not vote if an election was held now: they would abstain is the terminology. Indeed the wide ranging survey shows the Spanish peoples’ disillusionment across the board with politicians, their parties and the major institutions. The only two to receive approval ratings were the universities and the Ombudsman who battle on behalf of the people.

The overriding findings are a thumbs down for all politicians. Despite the socialists returning as the major party in Andalucía and the increase in support for the IU: 51.9 per cent of people in the region believe the PSOE – IU coalition is doing poorly as against 23.8 per cent who approve of its efforts. The PP in opposition is rated by 68.7 per cent as doing badly with only an approval rating of 14 per cent.

At a national level both the PP government of Rajoy and the opposition led by PSOE are in serious negative territory. Seventy-one per cent of Andaluces rate the PP government as bad or very bad and 72 per cent rate the PSOE opposition of Rubalcaba as bad also.

In the Bárcenas scandal Rubalcaba has called for the resignation of Rajoy because he is seemingly implicated. However the PSOE leader has steered clear of calling for a general election for one simple reason: he knows that the socialists would suffer as badly as the governing PP. Spanish voters are rejecting both major parties leaving a vacuum in the nation’s democracy and that is very bad news indeed.

BÁRCENAS CASE: It is the centre-left Spanish national newspaper El País that has made much of the running in the case revolving around Luis Bárcenas.

El País has published secret ledgers that appear to show that Bárcenas was behind a slush fund at the PP, which saw thousands of euros paid out over a number of years to high-ranking members of the party, including Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. In addition as part of the investigation into Bárcenas’ role in the Gürtel kickbacks-for-contracts scandal it has emerged the former PP treasurer had up to 22 million euros deposited in a Swiss bank account.

The PP insisted it broke off relations with its former treasurer in 2009 but it’s alleged Bárcenas received preferential treatment from the party until this January with an office for his documents at the party’s Madrid headquarters plus secretarial support all paid for by the PP. He was also being paid a monthly stipend by PP till the end of 2012. If that wasn’t enough the party paid Bárcenas’ social security payments a decision, says El País that could only have been granted with the blessing of the prime minister and PP leader, Mariano Rajoy.

(The above article was published in the London Progressive Journal on February 22 2013).