GOOD NEWS FOR LEFT IN ANDALUCIA, BAD NEWS FOR DEMOCRACY IN SPAIN

The southern most region of Spain, Andalucía, has always been a socialist fiefdom but the centre right Partido Popular came very close to toppling PSOE from power in the 2012 regional elections.

Now nearly a year on the opinion polls put PSOE firmly back in the lead. The socialists account for 38 per cent of the votes, four more than the PP. This level of support would not allow PSOE to govern on its own; it would still need the backing of the far left Izquierda Unida in a coalition – the exact formation that governs Andalucía now.

These are the conclusions of a study by Capdea - part of the University of Granada - that shows the national collapse of support for the Partido Popular in Andalucía as elsewhere in Spain.

This dramatic collapse after the November 2011 general election triumph was first brought on by the PP’s handling of the financial crisis. To that has now been added the major corruption scandals engulfing the party at the highest levels. However Capdea took its soundings before the full implications of the Bárcenas corruption scandal became known. This fiasco surrounds the former treasurer of the Partido Popular after it became known he had secret overseas bank accounts and had made under-the-table payments to PP politicians. Without a doubt the fortunes of the PP have plummeted still further.

The reason the socialists are back in front has a lot to do with the fall of the PP rather than any major backing for PSOE whose approval ratings are dire. Indeed where voters have switched to the left it has been to the far left Communist-led Izquierda Unida which Capdea says commands 14.2 per cent of the vote.

PSOE now has 38 per cent and the PP 34.4 per cent. At the March general election PP took 40.6 per cent of the vote, PSOE 39.5 per cent, so both are down on that level. However the IU (11.34) has seen a boost to its popularity to 14.2 per cent.

So what’s the bad news for Spanish democracy? That comes with the major rejection of main stream politicians, their parties and institutions which is not only dire news for them but also for the democratic process. If Spaniards reject politicians it leaves the door open for a modern day Franco figure to emerge promising to clean up corruption and offering stable, firm government.

Capdea reports that 46 per cent of those people questioned would not vote if an election was held now: they would abstain is the terminology. Indeed the wide ranging survey shows the Spanish peoples’ disillusionment across the board with politicians, their parties and the major institutions. The only two to receive approval ratings were the universities and the Ombudsman who battle on behalf of the people.

The overriding findings are a thumbs down for all politicians. Despite the socialists returning as the major party in Andalucía and the increase in support for the IU: 51.9 per cent of people in the region believe the PSOE – IU coalition is doing poorly as against 23.8 per cent who approve of its efforts. The PP in opposition is rated by 68.7 per cent as doing badly with only an approval rating of 14 per cent.

At a national level both the PP government of Rajoy and the opposition led by PSOE are in serious negative territory. Seventy-one per cent of Andaluces rate the PP government as bad or very bad and 72 per cent rate the PSOE opposition of Rubalcaba as bad also.

In the Bárcenas scandal Rubalcaba has called for the resignation of Rajoy because he is seemingly implicated. However the PSOE leader has steered clear of calling for a general election for one simple reason: he knows that the socialists would suffer as badly as the governing PP. Spanish voters are rejecting both major parties leaving a vacuum in the nation’s democracy and that is very bad news indeed.

BÁRCENAS CASE: It is the centre-left Spanish national newspaper El País that has made much of the running in the case revolving around Luis Bárcenas.

El País has published secret ledgers that appear to show that Bárcenas was behind a slush fund at the PP, which saw thousands of euros paid out over a number of years to high-ranking members of the party, including Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. In addition as part of the investigation into Bárcenas’ role in the Gürtel kickbacks-for-contracts scandal it has emerged the former PP treasurer had up to 22 million euros deposited in a Swiss bank account.

The PP insisted it broke off relations with its former treasurer in 2009 but it’s alleged Bárcenas received preferential treatment from the party until this January with an office for his documents at the party’s Madrid headquarters plus secretarial support all paid for by the PP. He was also being paid a monthly stipend by PP till the end of 2012. If that wasn’t enough the party paid Bárcenas’ social security payments a decision, says El País that could only have been granted with the blessing of the prime minister and PP leader, Mariano Rajoy.

(The above article was published in the London Progressive Journal on February 22 2013).

COMMUNISTS ENTER ANDALUCÍA GOVERNMENT

Today, May 3, will go down in the modern history of Spain’s Andalucía. The PSOE leader José Antonio Griñán will be elected as the president of the Junta de Andalucía with the support of the votes of Izquierda Unida – and the communist dominated far left party will enter government.

The centre right Partido Popular won the most seats, 50, but is easily outnumbered by the left coalition of the socialists and the IU on 59. Hence against all the odds PSOE retains power in Andalucía, Spain’s largest region, when only weeks ago the opinion polls predicted a sound PP victory. In the event the centre right vote collapsed and the left are the predominant grouping in the region that traditionally has always been behind PSOE.

Last week the activists of Izquierda Unida voted by 84.9 per cent to join PSOE in a coalition. It was not clear whether this would just mean the IU giving the socialists support or a full blow coalition. It appears to be the later and hence the communists will have ministerial portfolios.

Just how many will not be known to later this week when Griñán announces his government. He has stated that he will streamline the administration in the Andalucía capital of Sevilla by a third. This move has been backed by the IU’s co-ordination in Andalucía, Diego Valderas. He stated at the weekend that in these times of economic crisis the regional government should be streamlined and efficient.

It is expected that Diego Valderas will become the sole vice president in the administration under Griñán. The IU also hopes to pick up a third of the ministries with employment, the environment and tourism on their wish list. Given the pact between PSOE and the IU the PP are not likely to put forward the name of Javier Arenas for president as he would be overwhelmingly defeated.

Of course the arrival of the IU in a government in Spain will hardly cause a ripple amongst the voters. Many European countries traditionally have far stronger Communist Parties than in the UK albeit they now operate under another name. This is in stark contrast to the five Communist Party MPS who have been elected to the British Parliament starting in 1922 with Walton Newbold. Indeed the IU (a coalition between the Communist Party and environmental groups such as Los Verdes) is the third major political force in Spain, increasing in strength in both the national and regional elections as well as holding numerous town halls.

It is 81 years since Spain elected its Second Republic, an event still commemorated by Communists but at the time the party was in disarray. It wasn’t till 79 years ago, 1933, that the party’s first MP Cayetano Bolívar Escribano, was elected. Bolívar was jailed at the time of elections and left imprisonment to occupy his post in the parliament. However in the modern day it is not unusual for the IU to play a part in the government of Spain’s regional administrations.

PSOE has been shored up in government in Andalucía before by two coalitions with the Partido Andalucista. However the socialist spokesperson Susana Radio is adamant this will be a full on coalition with the IU of the style between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in the UK. The PA was very much sidelined in the coalitions with the socialists but the PSOE – IU coalition will be a united government with an agreed common platform to steer Andalucía through these very troubled times for the region and wider Spain.

Unemployment in Spain stands at 24.4 per cent with the youth jobless at a massive 49.6 per cent. As the IU is likely to take the employment portfolio it will be the Communist Party that is charged with rescuing the region from the unemployment abyss. There can be no tougher baptism in government for the true party of the left: but it is a challenge it has to meet and win as the fate of an entire generation lies in the IU’s hands.

(Photo: Griñán congratulated by Valderas after being elected president)

(The above article appeared in the Morning Star on Friday May 4 2012)

SPAIN’S LAST ELECTION

It has been a long election season in Spain and a very painful one for the socialist party PSOE although it has to be said that the far-left Izquierda Unida has benefitted at their expense.

It all started last May when the centre right Partido Popular swept to power in numerous town halls and regions. The general election was held at the end of November and the PP carried on their anticipated charge ousting PSOE from power and securing an overall majority. The third and last election comes this month in Andalucía and whilst the opinion polls point to yet another PP rout there is cause for optimism in left of centre ranks.

The general election was to be held this month but the outgoing PSOE premier José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero moved it forward to November. Traditionally Spain and Andalucía poll on the same day but the socialist administration in Sevilla decided to stick with the original date: a decision which may yet pay off.

When the PP swept to power in November I observed that voters hadn’t swung behind the centre right party: its vote rose by just 4.69 per cent. What had happened is that four million of them, or 15.11 per cent, abandoned PSOE. Some voted for the IU, some for other smaller parties, some switched to the PP but the vast majority just didn’t bother to vote at all.

The reality check came for the PP on Sunday February 19 when there were major demonstrations in 58 cities, including thousands marching through the centre of Madrid, all protesting against the government’s draconian new employment laws. Ironically the Partido Popular was holding a triumphalist congress in Sevilla ahead of the Andalucía regional government elections The PP Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was forced to rush on to the stage to defend his government’s changes to these laws. However the rapid disenchant with his administration is not going to go away. Spain’s two main unions, the UGT and CC.OO, have called a general strike for March 29 just days after the Andalucía elections and the day before Rajoy’s government presents its first budget which will hit workers, their families and the disadvantaged still further.

So can PSOE ride on the back of this growing public anger with its new government? The opinion polls suggest they can and they are. The problem is the PP has built up such a lead it might not be possible to close it in the days to come.

In October of last year, just ahead of the general election, the PP recorded its highest positive response with opinion pollsters since the 2008 Andalucía elections with the support of 49.4 per cent of voters. In contrast PSOE was at its lowest on 34.8 per cent.

However since then the polls are moving in PSOE’s favour although they are still way behind. The February sounding puts the PP on 45.2 per cent (down 4.2 per cent) whilst PSOE moves to 36.9 per cent (up 2.1 per cent). If that swing continues to polling day then the result could be far closer than at first envisaged.

On the February figures it is estimated that the PP will win between 54 and 57 seats. PSOE would lose power with between 44 and 47 seats. The only other party likely to pick up any seats is the far left Izquierda Unida with 8.4 per cent of the vote giving it seven to eight seats.

Yet if voters are moving back to PSOE then the gap between the parties will close and whilst the PP might win the most seats it might not have sufficient to take power if the ruling PSOE forms a coalition with the IU.

One other slither of encouragement for PSOE comes in the valuation by voters of the party’s respective leaders. The PSOE leader and current president of Andalucía José Antonio Griñán gets a favouring level of 4.6 out of 10 from voters. In contrast the PP leader is behind on 4.5 and he also trails Pilar González of the Partido Andalucista on 4.7 and Diego Valderas of the IU on 4.6.

Much hope for a socialist revival in Europe is being pinned on Hollande in the French presidential election over the end of April and the start of May. However if PSOE, may be with the support of Izquierda Unida, can hold power in Andalucía then perhaps people will rightly say the fight back started here.

DATELINE MARCH 26 2012 - ANDALUCÍA SWINGS TO THE LEFT

The centre right Partido Popular’s election material called for change – after all Andalucía had been ruled by the socialists for 30 years. The voters agreed: except instead of swinging to the right as in the Rajoy and Arenas game plan – they moved to the far left.

Yes the PP was the largest party on 50 seats but they were swamped by the combined forces of the left on 59 with over 50 per cent of the vote.

What happened on Sunday was that the PP’s vote collapsed to 40.66 per cent (50 seats) whilst PSOE rose from 36.9 to 39.53 (47 seats). However the real victors in many ways were the far-left Izquierda Unida which won 12 seats (up six) with 11.35 per cent of the vote. Hence those dissatisfied PSOE voters instead of switching to the centre right moved to the far left. It appears that in left wing Andalucía a Partido Popular government was just too much change and it is arguable that the party of the smug Arenas has peaked and will now decline back to its natural base.

(Above article was published in the London Progressive Journal on March 23 2012 and versions have appeared in other publications).

SPAIN’S LEFT DEMANDS REFERENDUM ON DEBT LIMIT

The accord between the ruling socialist party in Spain and the centre-right Partido Popular on changing the country’s constitution to limit government debt has met with stiff opposition from the far left Izquierda Unida and pro democracy groups such as the 15-M.


There are two main objections to the sudden move by the outgoing PSOE Prime Minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who has the support of the leader of the PP, Mariano Rajoy, who hopes to lead his party to government in November’s elections. The first is if Spain’s constitution is to be amended it should go before the people for their approval in a referendum. The second is the drastic effects the move could have on services such as health and education.

It would take just ten per cent of the MPs or senators in the Spanish Parliament to demand a binding referendum be called on the issue of reforming the Constitution to limit the public debt. The end effects could limit the access to health or education amongst other services for society’s most vulnerable – the rich won’t suffer as they can afford to pay for private care or teaching. By limiting debt the government is limiting its investment in society.

The Constitution does not demand that the people should be consulted for such a change to be made. However the pressure is on for ten per cent of the members of Congress and the Senate to demand a referendum on this key issue, which will have a profound effect on the future standard of Spaniards lives. This the Constitution does allow for – and the result will be binding.

Those activists who are agitating for the referendum say that Spain is the least participatory democracy in the EU. As the debt limitation measure would have a profound effect on the welfare state they argue it is scarcely democratic that it should be passed without the people having their say. Ironically Spain holds a general election on November 20 but as both the two main parties – PSOE and the PP – backed the introduction of the debt limit it will not be an issue.

When it comes to the Spanish welfare state it has one of the lowest levels of social public spending per capita in the EU. In addition whilst the debt limit applies to all government spending the areas that are being targeted are pensions as well as health, education, home care, social services, social housing plus the other components of the welfare state.

The change to the Constitution is being driven through Spain’s parliament with indecent haste. It remains to be seen whether the far left and democratic groups can halt this assault on those who depend on the welfare system in its tracks. It is tragic that the driving force should be a socialist government selling out the very people it was elected to support – and of course Spain heirs to Franco are right behind them.

(A version of the above article appeared in The Morning Star on Friday September 2 2011)

THE SPANISH REVOLUTION

Spain captured the world headlines last week as thousands of young people poured into Madrid’s Puerta del Sol to demand “real democracy now”.


The massive protest was under the Movimiento 15-M banner with similar demonstrations witnessed in Barcelona, Bilbao, Murcia, Valladolid, Santiago de Compostella, Vitoria, Zaragoza amongst other Spanish cities as well as amongst young Spaniards in Washington, New York, Frankfurt, Berlin, Athens and Mexico City.

The most tense day was last Saturday – a day of reflection in Spain’s town hall elections and also in polls for some regional governments. It is a day by law when no political activity can take place and the Junta Electoral Central that governs such matters had deemed the Puerta del Sol gathering illegal.

In the event the thousands gathered in Madrid’s central plaza remained in place without any confrontations with the police. The minister of the interior, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, consulted with security officials, but took the view that as long as the protests remained peaceful no action was to be taken.

A wise political move as socialist Rubalcaba is the favourite to succeed PSOE premier José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Zapatero will not contest the general election next March and this summer a new socialist leader will be chosen. A bloody confrontation last Saturday ahead of the polls on Sunday when PSOE was humiliated in many of its strongest seats would not have read well on his CV.

The irony of course is that the political beneficiaries of the deep anger over the high unemployment, financial meltdown and corruption has been the centre-right Partido Popular which is well set to take power in Madrid at the general election. Ironically the far-left Izquierda Unida (which includes the Partido Comunista) has also received a boost from PSOE’s mauling but not sufficient to make any inroads in to central government. Gaspar Llamazares, the IU MP, stated: “The results of the IU were positive but insufficient. Positive in the extension of autonomous and local seats but insufficient because we did not collect the votes lost by PSOE or of the radical democracy. We need to change and become the focus of the social and political left.”

As Llamazares has identified the problem for all political parties in Spain is their total rejection by a large number of young people in the country and especially those who took to the streets. They view all politicians as “deplorable” with over half subscribing to the view politics has nothing to do with them neither does it encroach on their private lives. Also in the firing line is the Catholic Church, large companies, the unions, the Spanish Royal family and parliament.

The majority view is the Catholic Church is too rich and meddles too much in politics. Of the politicians themselves they are viewed as pursuing their own interests and in promoting the interests of the multinationals and banks over those of the people. “We live under the dictatorship of the markets” was one of the protest banners.

There would also appear to be a collapse in the support for social movements compared with just six years ago. Ecologists, pro-human rights groups, pacifists have all lost support with only one in five young persons belonging to any form of association and those are largely cultural, sporting or youth orientated.

The family has always been a strong feature of Spanish life and is the refuge for many in the economic crisis with its accompanying high unemployment. A survey has shown that 85 per cent of young people still live with their family whether they study or work and the average age of leaving home has risen to 27. Not surprisingly 71 per cent rate their family as the most important aspect of their lives ahead of their health and friends.

Spain, as in many nations, is being confronted by a generation of pessimists. Over 40 per cent see unemployment as the major problem in their lives, over half of 15 to 24 year olds view their future with extreme pessimism, indeed it is a generation that believes it will be worse off that its parents.

The Partido Popular might be riding high in the polls but it would be very foolish indeed if it believed it is tapping in to this anger and dissatisfaction – for the party of the centre right, mired in corruption, is seen as part of the problem not the solution.

(A version of the above article appeared in The Morning Star on Thursday May 26 2011)