“GROWTH COMES WITH JOBS, INNOVATION AND ACCESS TO CREDIT”

France elected a socialist president in May and on September 28 his government delivered its budget for 2013 proclaimed as the “most important effort made for 30 years”. It has been praised because French President Francois Hollande with his Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici, have kept their deficit reduction pledges. Others have questioned the balance of taxes and spending and the over optimistic growth predictions.

France hasn’t balanced a budget since 1974 but Hollande and his team says it’s determined to see a reduction of the government’s budget deficit by three per cent in 2013. I asked Parti Socialiste MP Axelle Lemaire, who was elected for France’s new Northern European constituency in June – a constituency that includes the UK – for her take on the Hollande budget.

Eade: Francois Hollande was elected on a promise of promoting recovery by growth rather than cuts: if France misses its moderate growth target how will this be achieved?

Lemaire: The proposed 2013 budget, unveiled last week, lays on two principles: responsibility and jobs. When François Hollande took office in May, he asked for a general audit to the politically independent accounting body Cour des Comptes. Its conclusion was much worse than anticipated, unveiling a tremendous 30 billion Euro gap in the previous government's budget estimate. Fulfilling France's European commitments of deficit reduction was an imperative for François Hollande, as much as supporting the economy, jobs, and the French welfare state. To a large extent, this Budget is a difficult but realistic balance between deficit reduction and measures supporting employment and demand. The aim is to promote competitiveness and social fairness while asserting France’s fiscal responsibility and credibility. Growth comes with jobs, innovation and access to credit, three pillars of this Budget. 

Eade: The other promise was to create jobs: Laurence Parisot, of the Medef employers group says he fears this budget as it will damage competitiveness – so how will Hollande’s government create jobs?

Lemaire: It would be surprising to hear something different as this Budget asks for a contribution from everyone, particularly large companies and well-off households. However, the budget Minister insists that these contributions will be limited in time, to cope with this difficult economic situation. An improvement of the economic climate and access to credit is good for French companies. The government will support SMEs, one the largest job creators in the country, through various incentives. The creation of a Public Investment Bank devoted to investments in R&D, infrastructure projects and SMEs aims to boost France's competitiveness, a key condition to growth. Hollande's pledge to protect jobs despite limited margins finds concrete applications with the creation of 340,000 subsidised jobs, the construction of 100,000 social housings, a renewed effort in education with 60,000 new staff. Supporting demand, jobs and competitiveness in these very difficult times against austerity, cuts or a dismantlement of the welfare state - that’s the responsible pro-growth agenda that the government has chosen. 

Eade: The 75 per cent tax levy on those earning over one million euros appears to be more symbolic than raising any major amounts – millions rather than billions. Is it a “we are all in this together tax” and do you expect to have new high wealth French citizens as constituents as they flee France?

Lemaire: Yes, as a nation, we should face these tough times all together. Job losses destroy families. Paying higher taxes exclusively on salary income, for a predefined, exceptional amount of time, does not. Some understand this very well, and set the example. I pay tribute to them. For the rest, the problem is not tax exiles, but tax competition in Europe and particularly tax-havens. A stronger harmonization is needed. Job creation, innovation, competitiveness and fairness remain the main focus of our action.    

(The above article was published in the London Progressive Journal on October 20 2012)

HISTORIC VICTORY AND A SPICY TALE

The various rounds of the French presidential and parliamentary elections are now over. Before they started socialists throughout Europe were on the back foot. Now France has a socialist president and the Parti Socialiste will also have an overall majority in the National Assembly for Hollande’s five year term. This is historic but as Pierre Kanuty, who runs the international affairs of the Parti Socialiste in Paris points out – it is the end but also the beginning.

As I write this the final share of the seats in the French parliament is not known but the Parti Socialiste will have between 312 and 323 of them. The figure for an absolute majority is 289 out of the 577 so Hollande’s party will rule outright without having to rely on the support of the Greens or other left wing groupings.

One of those MPs will be Axelle Lemaire who is the first MP to be elected for the new constituency which embraces the UK, Republic of Ireland and all the Nordic countries. Lemaire is a French Canadian who spent her teenage years in France before settling in London. In the second round of voting she secured 54.8 per cent of the vote (Hollande received 53.1 in the presidential voting). A clearly delighted Lemaire expressed: “Un immense merci à tous ceux qui ont cru en moi, à mon équipe et aux électeurs! Fierté, responsabilité.” Her constituency must be one of the largest in the world but thankfully 80 per cent of her electorate are in the British Isles.

So now to Paris where Pierre Kanuty is celebrating the second major victory for the Parti Socialiste in just over a month. However he takes a sober view of events telling me: “the socialist party made it and won an absolute majority. This is historical, but we’re not hysterical. Historical because, for the very first time in the history of our country, the left, has all the powers. The local level and the national level. In a sense, it was mechanical, and no one forgets where we are coming from.”

Indeed the socialists in France have spent years out in the cold. Pierre observes: “Ten years ago, the defeat was so bitter that we’ve been through a deep depression. Under the leadership of François Hollande, the crisis was hard but we started to re-conquer from local basis thanks to our victory at all local elections from 2004 to present. With the local powers came the main cities like Paris, Lyon, Nantes, Toulouse, the regions and the departments - local councils.”

So Pierre why did Sarkozy win in 2007? “In a way, winning the presidential elections of 2007 was possible, but at the time, there was a strong gap between the fierce campaign of Nicolas Sarkozy and the controversial campaign let by Segolene Royal. Although we lost that year, we got more MPs than five years before and it was the promise of future victories. The landslide of municipal elections in 2008 and regional elections in 2010 brought a historical change with our victory in the Senate, for the very first time in history.”

So what was left for the Parti Socialiste to achieve? Pierre stated: “What was left was a national success for the left. Our primaries, the presidential campaign and the legislative elections, gave us a momentum we never lost. But on the other hand, voters were fed up with a whole year full of politics and elections. This is one of the reasons for the low turnout.”

I have already mentioned that Axelle Lemaire will be one of the new MPs and Pierre makes the point this election was: “Historical also because, more than one hundred female MP's, most of them socialists, will enter the new assembly. The conservatives had decided to sacrifice gender equality to secure an impossible victory. Ethnic minorities are also part of the winning pack with a dozen new MP's.”

So I asked Pierre how will the new parliament look? He explained: “François Hollande and Jean-Marc Ayrault have now a strong majority to implement their commitments. For the first time, the Green party will have a parliamentary group. The left front (a coalition including the communists) are the big losers of the campaign. Melenchon decided to defy Marine Le Pen, but the socialist candidate was ahead. This personal failure is to be added to a political crisis for the left front on the very day Syriza didn’t win the elections in Greece.

“On the right side, the Right went wrong. Most of the MPs from UMP who had been flirting with the National Front have been defeated. The National Front will have two MPs: a former controversial lawyer and the granddaughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen who will be the youngest MP.

“If we look at the map, we have historical victories in traditionally conservative constituencies. In many parts of the eastern side of the country, next to the borders, in areas that have not recovered yet from the collapse of industries, the conservatives and the nationalists made a strong performance.”

Pierre started his remarks by saying the Parti Socialiste had secured a historical victory but the socialists were not being hysterical. He explained why: “we're not hysterical because we fully understand the pressure of responsibilities. The current economical and social situation is the main frame. The situation has never been so hard. The socialists never had such a majority. But mathematical superiority must match political possibilities.

“It is the end of a decade in opposition and the beginning of a new era full of uncertain stakes and challenges. This will question the real strength of politics. Are we able to tackle unfair choices, to take over financial markets and stop the hysteria of austerity or are we just good to manage hard times.

“The government has the support needed to rule for economical efficiency and social justice. It is also a momentum for François Hollande and the time for him to make the right moves in Europe and in the G8 and G20. It is a strong hope for the progressives. Now it is time to move forward.”

The Spicy Tale: It was in early April that I wrote the first of this series of articles on the French elections. I touched on the colourful love lives of French politicians and that is how I shall close. Segolene Royal, the former partner of Francois Hollande and mother of his children was of course the party’s candidate for president in 2007. This time around she stood as an MP in Charentes-Maritime in La Rochelle. She was defeated by an independent socialist Olivier Falorni 63 per cent to 37.

Hollande had pledged his support for Royal but the new first lady who sits in the Elyse Palace in her place, Valerie Trierweiler, is said to have posted on Twitter her support for Falorni. In her speech conceding defeat Royal spoke of betrayal as well she might.

“Cherchons la femme” as they say in the Rue du Chat-qui-Pêche.

 (The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on Wednesday June 20 2012)

FRENCH CANADIAN BATTLES TO SPEAK FOR LONDON IN PARIS

The French Presidential elections are done and dusted and France now has a Socialist President, Francois Hollande, who has replaced the centre right incumbent, President “Bling Bling” Sarkozy.

Now France is embroiled in its elections for parliament. Nothing in French politics seems easy. There were two rounds of Presidential elections and whilst voting is underway for its MPs the final outcome will not be known till the second round on June 17.

Life is too short for me to enquire further in to France’s electoral system: for the wider centre left in the UK there are only two questions. First will the French voters elect a socialist majority to support Hollande and will the voters in the Northern Europe constituency return the Parti Socialiste’s French Canadian-born candidate to the 14^th National Assembly of the Fifth Republic as their MP?

French nationals à l'étranger have previously been able to vote for their president and for Senate seats. Now the French parliament has decided that for this election there would be overseas constituencies to represent its nationals abroad. I personally applaud the concept but given the size of the Northern Europe constituency I wonder how effective a voice the voters will have in practice.

When an MP stands for a seat he or she campaigns in their constituency which covers a small confined area. National leaders of the party are expected to travel from one corner of the country to another to canvass for votes. However for Axelle Lemaire, the Parti Socialiste candidate in the Northern Europe Constituency, and her rivals they have to campaign in the UK (which is home to 80 per cent of the voters), the Irish Republic then from Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia to Greenland. I understand Lemaire has visited 25 cities on her campaign trail.

Axelle Lemaire is a true French international. Born of a French Canadian father and a French mother in Canada she lived there to her teenage years. Then after school and university in France she did a post graduate degree in law in London where she has lived for the past ten years. Her two children are as “international” as she is. The former advisor to a Labour MP now heads the socialist campaign in a constituency that is the Parti Socialiste’s to win.

The initial omens are good. In the first round of voting held on Sunday Lemaire took 30.16 per cent of the vote. Whilst in the second round of the French presidential elections a month ago 53.1 per cent of Lemaire’s voters backed Hollande compared with 46.9 per cent for Sarkozy. However it remains to be seen whether French voters in her constituency and wider France will give Hollande the socialist led parliament he desires. Fingers crossed for June 17.

For the picture in wider France I once again turned to Pierre Kanuty who runs international affairs for the Parti Socialiste in Paris. Pierre told me: “We hope our expectations will match the pundits' predictions. In a couple of weeks, the French voters will decided whether they want a left majority or not in the National Assembly after the victory of François Hollande three weeks ago.”

So how have French voters taken to Hollande’s new administration? Pierre stated: “As the first steps of the government led by Jean-Marc Ayrault seem to get positive media coverage, we believe a victory for the socialists is possible. The stakes are high. We need to find the tools necessary to shift from austerity to growth. Even if François Hollande's debuts on the diplomatic level and the first public appearances of our new members of government brought fresh air, style and determination, we cannot depend on an artificial momentum. There is no time to rest!”

In a presidential system of government how important is it to also have a majority in the National Assembly. Pierre is in no doubt: “We need an absolute socialist majority for if we need allies, we should, without arrogance, be able to count on our own in case there are hard decisions to make. By claiming so, we ask our voters to vote for us. But we have also decided to endorse candidates from the Green party so maybe, for the first time they will have a parliamentary group after the one they gained in the Senate last September.”

And what of the conservatives and Sarkozy’s supporters?

“The conservatives are very strongly divided and they have already started a violent fight between current UMP leader, Jean-François Copé and the former prime minister François Fillon. The quarrel goes from the leadership vacuum left by Sarkozy and the strategy towards the National Front. Copé claims he wants no deal with the National Front, but he and his friends use a NF like rhetoric,” warns Pierre.

“Most of all, the conservatives haven’t recover yet from their electoral hangover as they call for national unity and a new cohabitation. They consider the victory of the left as a danger, and the results of implementing our programme as catastrophe for the nation. It is weird to see a party, in power for ten years, kicked out from is by a clear vote, trying to keep its hooks in what they believe their property.”

Pierre has a clear message to those who supported Hollande on May 6. He stated: “We also use the scarecrow of cohabitation and the victory of the right to mobilize our voters. There won't be a mechanical effect just because on May 6 more than 51 per cent of the French voters chose François Hollande.”

The centre left fight back started in France on May 6 with the election of Hollande as the president. However it is clear that for socialists the job is only half done and the outcome of the June 17 parliamentary elections are vital. Let us hope for a Parti Socialiste victory and that French Canadian Axelle Lemaire will be London’s first French MP in Paris.

(Photo courtesy of Axelle Lemarie)

(The above article was publishing in the London Progressive Journal on June 6 2012).

THE FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: AS VIEWED FROM THE RUE DE SOLFÉRINO

The Rue de Solférino is on the left bank of the Seine in Paris. It takes its name from the Battle of Solférino fought by Napoleon III and Victor Emmanuel II on one side against Francis Joseph of Austria on the other back in 1859. Needless to say Napoleon’s team won.

The street has many political associations and today is the headquarters of France’s Parti Socialiste. The Rue de Solférino is now witnessing another historic battle as the PS’ Francois Hollande seeks to oust the Bling Bling president of France, Sarkozy, from power. That battle will be decided by French voters on Sunday May 6.

At the Parti Socialiste HQ is the office of Pierre Kanuty, the party’s political advisor for International and Europe affairs. He is also a prolific blogger and shared with me his views on the state of the election so far after Sunday’s first round.

Pierre considers the first round of the presidential election - The beginning of the end for Sarkozy. He continued: “One can learn a lot from Sunday’s vote. The turnout was finally better than expected. French citizens are crazy about politics and despite a very long sequence - the socialist open primaries and the campaign, many of them vote.

“François Hollande gathered 10 millions of voters, reaching one of the highest results for a socialist candidate. Sarkozy didn't succeed at all. The hyper president never had a real momentum.”

That was the good news: what of the bad?

Pierre shares the views expressed here by the PS’s UK candidate Axelle Lemaire said: “The bad news came from the Front National (extreme right) with its best result since one voter out of five gave his or her vote to Marine Le Pen.

“New look but old ideas; the FN will put a heavy pressure on the Conservatives. Some pundits predict that they want to destroy the Conservative UMP in order to reshape the right.”

On the far left candidate Pierre observe: “Melenchon didn’t reach his goal - to be the third man, but with 10 per cent, he give the Communist Party and the radical left a steady weight.

“The Green Party failed in an election that is not right for them. With the crisis, people care less about ecology than about keeping their jobs.”

So what of the coming days before the final presidential run-off and the period that follows in France and wider Europe?

Pierre is a realist and issues a stark warning: “The victory is close but we’re not there yet. The right wing parties may lose in the vote, but they have already won in the heads - such a reality exists all over Europe.

“The progressives will have to address theses issues: how can we tackle the crisis, reduce deficit, find growth and make solidarity between people a priority?”

That is the challenge not just facing Hollande and the Parti Socialiste but those on the left of politics throughout Europe: it is a battle that has to be won.

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on April 26 and a version in the Morning Star on April 27 2012 as well as other online publications).

ADVANTAGE HOLLANDE

The French Open, one of tennis’ major grand slams, is coming up fast and hence to use the terminology of that sport the first round of that country’s presidential election sees the umpire call “Advantage Hollande”. However as in politics and in sport having the advantage does not guarantee victory.

In the first round of polling held on Sunday April 22 socialist Hollande took 28.6 per cent of the votes to put him ahead of the current president Sarkozy on 27.2 per cent. The big surprise of the day was the high vote for far right candidate Marine Le Pen with 17.9 per cent. In fourth place was the voice for the far left Jean-Luc Melenchon on 11.1 per cent whilst the centrist Francois Bayrou registered 9.1 per cent.

The second round on Sunday May 6 will be between Hollande and Sarkozy to determine who is the next president of France. Already Ifop has conducted and published a poll which on the basis of the soundings carried out after the polls closed on Sunday sees Hollande capturing 54.5 per cent of the vote with Sarkozy trailing on 45.5 per cent.

Just how the three main eliminated candidates’ votes are distributed in the second round is key to the outcome of the presidential election. The same Ifop polls said 83 per cent of the far left Jean-Luc Melenchon vote would go to Hollande whilst Sarkozy would collect 38 per cent of Bayrou’s voters and 48 per cent of Le Pen’s. Hollande would pick up 32 and 31 per cent respectively.

In the end event it may be down to the fact that the French voters have simply had enough of President Bling Bling and believe that socialist Hollande is more suited to these austere times.

Axelle Lemaire is the Parti Socialiste candidate for the UK and Northern Europe constituency for the French parliamentary elections that will be held in June. However she has also been working to get her supporters out to vote in the same constituency on April 22 and will again on May 6 for her party leader Francois Hollande.

On the first round vote Lemaire said: “We have good reasons to feel satisfied with the results. It is the first time in French modern political history that an outgoing president does not pass the first round in a leading position, and polls indicate that Mr Hollande enjoys a significant advance in the second round. But it leaves a sweet and sour taste, given the high score of the extreme right candidate Marine Le Pen, who actually attracted more voters than her father when he made it to the second round in 2002. In itself this is another sign that social democracy throughout Europe is facing a serious challenge from extremist and populist parties. Mr Hollande is the best candidate to address the real concerns of the people regarding their social and legal safety”.

So how did the French voters in the British Isles and other areas of Europe in this constituency vote? Lemaire says: “The results of the first round of the French presidential election in the North Europe constituency show that victory is possible for François Hollande here. Overall, the number of left-wing voters in the first round has increased compared with 2007, and seems to be higher than that of the right. There is clearly an opportunity to show that abroad too, French people want change for their country, and see addressed issues of justice, fairness and equality, as well as a clear strategy for Europe and for growth. This first result also indicates that the race will be tight, with every vote counting. Which path do we want France to take in the next five years and for the future generations? It is up to us to decide, in France, and abroad.”

On May 6 the people of France will speak: the chance of a historic socialist victory is within Hollande’s grasp if the voters have the courage of their convictions they have shown so far.

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on April 26 and a version in the Morning Star on April 27 2012 as well as other online publications).

Emma Reynolds: Labour’s Shadow Europe Minister also writes on this subject at:

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2012/04/24/hollande-in-pole-position/