“GROWTH COMES WITH JOBS, INNOVATION AND ACCESS TO CREDIT”

France elected a socialist president in May and on September 28 his government delivered its budget for 2013 proclaimed as the “most important effort made for 30 years”. It has been praised because French President Francois Hollande with his Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici, have kept their deficit reduction pledges. Others have questioned the balance of taxes and spending and the over optimistic growth predictions.

France hasn’t balanced a budget since 1974 but Hollande and his team says it’s determined to see a reduction of the government’s budget deficit by three per cent in 2013. I asked Parti Socialiste MP Axelle Lemaire, who was elected for France’s new Northern European constituency in June – a constituency that includes the UK – for her take on the Hollande budget.

Eade: Francois Hollande was elected on a promise of promoting recovery by growth rather than cuts: if France misses its moderate growth target how will this be achieved?

Lemaire: The proposed 2013 budget, unveiled last week, lays on two principles: responsibility and jobs. When François Hollande took office in May, he asked for a general audit to the politically independent accounting body Cour des Comptes. Its conclusion was much worse than anticipated, unveiling a tremendous 30 billion Euro gap in the previous government's budget estimate. Fulfilling France's European commitments of deficit reduction was an imperative for François Hollande, as much as supporting the economy, jobs, and the French welfare state. To a large extent, this Budget is a difficult but realistic balance between deficit reduction and measures supporting employment and demand. The aim is to promote competitiveness and social fairness while asserting France’s fiscal responsibility and credibility. Growth comes with jobs, innovation and access to credit, three pillars of this Budget. 

Eade: The other promise was to create jobs: Laurence Parisot, of the Medef employers group says he fears this budget as it will damage competitiveness – so how will Hollande’s government create jobs?

Lemaire: It would be surprising to hear something different as this Budget asks for a contribution from everyone, particularly large companies and well-off households. However, the budget Minister insists that these contributions will be limited in time, to cope with this difficult economic situation. An improvement of the economic climate and access to credit is good for French companies. The government will support SMEs, one the largest job creators in the country, through various incentives. The creation of a Public Investment Bank devoted to investments in R&D, infrastructure projects and SMEs aims to boost France's competitiveness, a key condition to growth. Hollande's pledge to protect jobs despite limited margins finds concrete applications with the creation of 340,000 subsidised jobs, the construction of 100,000 social housings, a renewed effort in education with 60,000 new staff. Supporting demand, jobs and competitiveness in these very difficult times against austerity, cuts or a dismantlement of the welfare state - that’s the responsible pro-growth agenda that the government has chosen. 

Eade: The 75 per cent tax levy on those earning over one million euros appears to be more symbolic than raising any major amounts – millions rather than billions. Is it a “we are all in this together tax” and do you expect to have new high wealth French citizens as constituents as they flee France?

Lemaire: Yes, as a nation, we should face these tough times all together. Job losses destroy families. Paying higher taxes exclusively on salary income, for a predefined, exceptional amount of time, does not. Some understand this very well, and set the example. I pay tribute to them. For the rest, the problem is not tax exiles, but tax competition in Europe and particularly tax-havens. A stronger harmonization is needed. Job creation, innovation, competitiveness and fairness remain the main focus of our action.    

(The above article was published in the London Progressive Journal on October 20 2012)

HISTORIC VICTORY AND A SPICY TALE

The various rounds of the French presidential and parliamentary elections are now over. Before they started socialists throughout Europe were on the back foot. Now France has a socialist president and the Parti Socialiste will also have an overall majority in the National Assembly for Hollande’s five year term. This is historic but as Pierre Kanuty, who runs the international affairs of the Parti Socialiste in Paris points out – it is the end but also the beginning.

As I write this the final share of the seats in the French parliament is not known but the Parti Socialiste will have between 312 and 323 of them. The figure for an absolute majority is 289 out of the 577 so Hollande’s party will rule outright without having to rely on the support of the Greens or other left wing groupings.

One of those MPs will be Axelle Lemaire who is the first MP to be elected for the new constituency which embraces the UK, Republic of Ireland and all the Nordic countries. Lemaire is a French Canadian who spent her teenage years in France before settling in London. In the second round of voting she secured 54.8 per cent of the vote (Hollande received 53.1 in the presidential voting). A clearly delighted Lemaire expressed: “Un immense merci à tous ceux qui ont cru en moi, à mon équipe et aux électeurs! Fierté, responsabilité.” Her constituency must be one of the largest in the world but thankfully 80 per cent of her electorate are in the British Isles.

So now to Paris where Pierre Kanuty is celebrating the second major victory for the Parti Socialiste in just over a month. However he takes a sober view of events telling me: “the socialist party made it and won an absolute majority. This is historical, but we’re not hysterical. Historical because, for the very first time in the history of our country, the left, has all the powers. The local level and the national level. In a sense, it was mechanical, and no one forgets where we are coming from.”

Indeed the socialists in France have spent years out in the cold. Pierre observes: “Ten years ago, the defeat was so bitter that we’ve been through a deep depression. Under the leadership of François Hollande, the crisis was hard but we started to re-conquer from local basis thanks to our victory at all local elections from 2004 to present. With the local powers came the main cities like Paris, Lyon, Nantes, Toulouse, the regions and the departments - local councils.”

So Pierre why did Sarkozy win in 2007? “In a way, winning the presidential elections of 2007 was possible, but at the time, there was a strong gap between the fierce campaign of Nicolas Sarkozy and the controversial campaign let by Segolene Royal. Although we lost that year, we got more MPs than five years before and it was the promise of future victories. The landslide of municipal elections in 2008 and regional elections in 2010 brought a historical change with our victory in the Senate, for the very first time in history.”

So what was left for the Parti Socialiste to achieve? Pierre stated: “What was left was a national success for the left. Our primaries, the presidential campaign and the legislative elections, gave us a momentum we never lost. But on the other hand, voters were fed up with a whole year full of politics and elections. This is one of the reasons for the low turnout.”

I have already mentioned that Axelle Lemaire will be one of the new MPs and Pierre makes the point this election was: “Historical also because, more than one hundred female MP's, most of them socialists, will enter the new assembly. The conservatives had decided to sacrifice gender equality to secure an impossible victory. Ethnic minorities are also part of the winning pack with a dozen new MP's.”

So I asked Pierre how will the new parliament look? He explained: “François Hollande and Jean-Marc Ayrault have now a strong majority to implement their commitments. For the first time, the Green party will have a parliamentary group. The left front (a coalition including the communists) are the big losers of the campaign. Melenchon decided to defy Marine Le Pen, but the socialist candidate was ahead. This personal failure is to be added to a political crisis for the left front on the very day Syriza didn’t win the elections in Greece.

“On the right side, the Right went wrong. Most of the MPs from UMP who had been flirting with the National Front have been defeated. The National Front will have two MPs: a former controversial lawyer and the granddaughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen who will be the youngest MP.

“If we look at the map, we have historical victories in traditionally conservative constituencies. In many parts of the eastern side of the country, next to the borders, in areas that have not recovered yet from the collapse of industries, the conservatives and the nationalists made a strong performance.”

Pierre started his remarks by saying the Parti Socialiste had secured a historical victory but the socialists were not being hysterical. He explained why: “we're not hysterical because we fully understand the pressure of responsibilities. The current economical and social situation is the main frame. The situation has never been so hard. The socialists never had such a majority. But mathematical superiority must match political possibilities.

“It is the end of a decade in opposition and the beginning of a new era full of uncertain stakes and challenges. This will question the real strength of politics. Are we able to tackle unfair choices, to take over financial markets and stop the hysteria of austerity or are we just good to manage hard times.

“The government has the support needed to rule for economical efficiency and social justice. It is also a momentum for François Hollande and the time for him to make the right moves in Europe and in the G8 and G20. It is a strong hope for the progressives. Now it is time to move forward.”

The Spicy Tale: It was in early April that I wrote the first of this series of articles on the French elections. I touched on the colourful love lives of French politicians and that is how I shall close. Segolene Royal, the former partner of Francois Hollande and mother of his children was of course the party’s candidate for president in 2007. This time around she stood as an MP in Charentes-Maritime in La Rochelle. She was defeated by an independent socialist Olivier Falorni 63 per cent to 37.

Hollande had pledged his support for Royal but the new first lady who sits in the Elyse Palace in her place, Valerie Trierweiler, is said to have posted on Twitter her support for Falorni. In her speech conceding defeat Royal spoke of betrayal as well she might.

“Cherchons la femme” as they say in the Rue du Chat-qui-Pêche.

 (The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on Wednesday June 20 2012)

“I AM THE PRESIDENT OF THE YOUTH OF FRANCE”

Francois Hollande is the president-elect of France. On Sunday evening after the polls closed he addressed a crowd in his home constituency of Tulle before heading off for the Parti Socialiste victory bash in the Place de la Bastille in Paris – the traditional rallying point of the left. In Tulle he declared to his jubilant audience:  “I am the president of the youth of France. You are a movement that is rising up throughout Europe.”

It will come as a reassurance to those of us who are ‘long in the tooth’, or a “vieille personne” in French argot, that Hollande is fast approaching 60 and is balding. He is also intent on restoring the retirement age to 60 years for some – outgoing centre right presidents perhaps. So for all of us who are young at heart in the progressive left in Europe we can clamber aboard the renewed sense of hope that Hollande has brought to the young, the middle-aged and the old alike in his native France.

On Sunday in the second round of the French Presidential election Francois Hollande became the socialist party’s first president since 1995, when another Francois, Mitterrand, stood down after serving two terms. Hollande secured victory with just under 51.63 per cent of the vote (roughly the same as Mitterrand) leaving his centre right rival Nicolas Sarkozy as the first president not to secure a second term since 1981.

In Paris on Sunday night was Pierre Kanuty of the Parti Socialiste’s Europe and International Department. His verdict: “It was the day we made history!”

After a long night of celebrations Pierre told me: “Sunday was an important election day in many ways all over Europe. The Labour did very well in UK’s local elections, the SPD as well in Schleswig-Holstein. In Greece, the defeat of PASOK was predictable but the serious threat of extreme right shows the reality of a danger we have experienced here in France. The campaign in France was not just a domestic political event. It was observed and monitored abroad and we were aware of that.”

The progressive socialist movement throughout Europe had been pinning its hopes on a Hollande victory. Pierre confided: “The support, the messages and the help we’ve got from our comrades was not just symbolic. It gave us faith, strength and it helped us having constantly in mind how important it was for social-democracy and Europe.”

So why did Sarkozy fail to win a second term? Pierre is in no doubt: “Because the hyper-president never understood he’s been too far in his hustle. The TV debate between him and François Hollande showed clearly two styles, two ways to do politics. The conservative candidate was acting as if reality was on his side but he never faced the contradiction between being a super president, like the heroes you see in blockbusters and a real impotent man blaming the crisis for his failure. The most symbolic argument was that in 2007, shortly before he took office, he had promised to reduce the unemployment rate to five per cent. Five years later it is around 10 per cent: it was not halved, it was doubled.”

Pierre continued: “Sarkozy never acted as somebody who embodied France as a whole. His nickname was the ‘President of the Riches’ and during the campaign he moved to the right. Some of his supporters even talked about alliances with the Front National of Marine Le Pen. He kept talking about immigration as invasion, Muslims as the symbol of all immigrants coming to our country and changing our ‘way of life’.”

The voting on Sunday saw the Parti Socialiste triumph in historically conservative places. For the first time the PS was ahead in both Paris and its region. The overwhelming rejection was perhaps the reason that Sarkozy conceded defeat just half an hour after the polling stations closed.

François Hollande will officially take over as president on May 15. The immediate battle for the Parti Socialiste is not over: in June it faces all important parliamentary elections. The challenge says Pierre “is to win a socialist majority in order to be safe from a green-red pressure” from Sarkozy’s defeated Union for a Popular Movement and the far right threat of the Front National.

For Hollande the challenges are just starting: meanwhile his party is launched once more into a vital election battle.

(The above article was published in the London Progressive Journal on May 9 2012).