HISTORIC VICTORY AND A SPICY TALE

The various rounds of the French presidential and parliamentary elections are now over. Before they started socialists throughout Europe were on the back foot. Now France has a socialist president and the Parti Socialiste will also have an overall majority in the National Assembly for Hollande’s five year term. This is historic but as Pierre Kanuty, who runs the international affairs of the Parti Socialiste in Paris points out – it is the end but also the beginning.

As I write this the final share of the seats in the French parliament is not known but the Parti Socialiste will have between 312 and 323 of them. The figure for an absolute majority is 289 out of the 577 so Hollande’s party will rule outright without having to rely on the support of the Greens or other left wing groupings.

One of those MPs will be Axelle Lemaire who is the first MP to be elected for the new constituency which embraces the UK, Republic of Ireland and all the Nordic countries. Lemaire is a French Canadian who spent her teenage years in France before settling in London. In the second round of voting she secured 54.8 per cent of the vote (Hollande received 53.1 in the presidential voting). A clearly delighted Lemaire expressed: “Un immense merci à tous ceux qui ont cru en moi, à mon équipe et aux électeurs! Fierté, responsabilité.” Her constituency must be one of the largest in the world but thankfully 80 per cent of her electorate are in the British Isles.

So now to Paris where Pierre Kanuty is celebrating the second major victory for the Parti Socialiste in just over a month. However he takes a sober view of events telling me: “the socialist party made it and won an absolute majority. This is historical, but we’re not hysterical. Historical because, for the very first time in the history of our country, the left, has all the powers. The local level and the national level. In a sense, it was mechanical, and no one forgets where we are coming from.”

Indeed the socialists in France have spent years out in the cold. Pierre observes: “Ten years ago, the defeat was so bitter that we’ve been through a deep depression. Under the leadership of François Hollande, the crisis was hard but we started to re-conquer from local basis thanks to our victory at all local elections from 2004 to present. With the local powers came the main cities like Paris, Lyon, Nantes, Toulouse, the regions and the departments - local councils.”

So Pierre why did Sarkozy win in 2007? “In a way, winning the presidential elections of 2007 was possible, but at the time, there was a strong gap between the fierce campaign of Nicolas Sarkozy and the controversial campaign let by Segolene Royal. Although we lost that year, we got more MPs than five years before and it was the promise of future victories. The landslide of municipal elections in 2008 and regional elections in 2010 brought a historical change with our victory in the Senate, for the very first time in history.”

So what was left for the Parti Socialiste to achieve? Pierre stated: “What was left was a national success for the left. Our primaries, the presidential campaign and the legislative elections, gave us a momentum we never lost. But on the other hand, voters were fed up with a whole year full of politics and elections. This is one of the reasons for the low turnout.”

I have already mentioned that Axelle Lemaire will be one of the new MPs and Pierre makes the point this election was: “Historical also because, more than one hundred female MP's, most of them socialists, will enter the new assembly. The conservatives had decided to sacrifice gender equality to secure an impossible victory. Ethnic minorities are also part of the winning pack with a dozen new MP's.”

So I asked Pierre how will the new parliament look? He explained: “François Hollande and Jean-Marc Ayrault have now a strong majority to implement their commitments. For the first time, the Green party will have a parliamentary group. The left front (a coalition including the communists) are the big losers of the campaign. Melenchon decided to defy Marine Le Pen, but the socialist candidate was ahead. This personal failure is to be added to a political crisis for the left front on the very day Syriza didn’t win the elections in Greece.

“On the right side, the Right went wrong. Most of the MPs from UMP who had been flirting with the National Front have been defeated. The National Front will have two MPs: a former controversial lawyer and the granddaughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen who will be the youngest MP.

“If we look at the map, we have historical victories in traditionally conservative constituencies. In many parts of the eastern side of the country, next to the borders, in areas that have not recovered yet from the collapse of industries, the conservatives and the nationalists made a strong performance.”

Pierre started his remarks by saying the Parti Socialiste had secured a historical victory but the socialists were not being hysterical. He explained why: “we're not hysterical because we fully understand the pressure of responsibilities. The current economical and social situation is the main frame. The situation has never been so hard. The socialists never had such a majority. But mathematical superiority must match political possibilities.

“It is the end of a decade in opposition and the beginning of a new era full of uncertain stakes and challenges. This will question the real strength of politics. Are we able to tackle unfair choices, to take over financial markets and stop the hysteria of austerity or are we just good to manage hard times.

“The government has the support needed to rule for economical efficiency and social justice. It is also a momentum for François Hollande and the time for him to make the right moves in Europe and in the G8 and G20. It is a strong hope for the progressives. Now it is time to move forward.”

The Spicy Tale: It was in early April that I wrote the first of this series of articles on the French elections. I touched on the colourful love lives of French politicians and that is how I shall close. Segolene Royal, the former partner of Francois Hollande and mother of his children was of course the party’s candidate for president in 2007. This time around she stood as an MP in Charentes-Maritime in La Rochelle. She was defeated by an independent socialist Olivier Falorni 63 per cent to 37.

Hollande had pledged his support for Royal but the new first lady who sits in the Elyse Palace in her place, Valerie Trierweiler, is said to have posted on Twitter her support for Falorni. In her speech conceding defeat Royal spoke of betrayal as well she might.

“Cherchons la femme” as they say in the Rue du Chat-qui-Pêche.

 (The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on Wednesday June 20 2012)

“I AM THE PRESIDENT OF THE YOUTH OF FRANCE”

Francois Hollande is the president-elect of France. On Sunday evening after the polls closed he addressed a crowd in his home constituency of Tulle before heading off for the Parti Socialiste victory bash in the Place de la Bastille in Paris – the traditional rallying point of the left. In Tulle he declared to his jubilant audience:  “I am the president of the youth of France. You are a movement that is rising up throughout Europe.”

It will come as a reassurance to those of us who are ‘long in the tooth’, or a “vieille personne” in French argot, that Hollande is fast approaching 60 and is balding. He is also intent on restoring the retirement age to 60 years for some – outgoing centre right presidents perhaps. So for all of us who are young at heart in the progressive left in Europe we can clamber aboard the renewed sense of hope that Hollande has brought to the young, the middle-aged and the old alike in his native France.

On Sunday in the second round of the French Presidential election Francois Hollande became the socialist party’s first president since 1995, when another Francois, Mitterrand, stood down after serving two terms. Hollande secured victory with just under 51.63 per cent of the vote (roughly the same as Mitterrand) leaving his centre right rival Nicolas Sarkozy as the first president not to secure a second term since 1981.

In Paris on Sunday night was Pierre Kanuty of the Parti Socialiste’s Europe and International Department. His verdict: “It was the day we made history!”

After a long night of celebrations Pierre told me: “Sunday was an important election day in many ways all over Europe. The Labour did very well in UK’s local elections, the SPD as well in Schleswig-Holstein. In Greece, the defeat of PASOK was predictable but the serious threat of extreme right shows the reality of a danger we have experienced here in France. The campaign in France was not just a domestic political event. It was observed and monitored abroad and we were aware of that.”

The progressive socialist movement throughout Europe had been pinning its hopes on a Hollande victory. Pierre confided: “The support, the messages and the help we’ve got from our comrades was not just symbolic. It gave us faith, strength and it helped us having constantly in mind how important it was for social-democracy and Europe.”

So why did Sarkozy fail to win a second term? Pierre is in no doubt: “Because the hyper-president never understood he’s been too far in his hustle. The TV debate between him and François Hollande showed clearly two styles, two ways to do politics. The conservative candidate was acting as if reality was on his side but he never faced the contradiction between being a super president, like the heroes you see in blockbusters and a real impotent man blaming the crisis for his failure. The most symbolic argument was that in 2007, shortly before he took office, he had promised to reduce the unemployment rate to five per cent. Five years later it is around 10 per cent: it was not halved, it was doubled.”

Pierre continued: “Sarkozy never acted as somebody who embodied France as a whole. His nickname was the ‘President of the Riches’ and during the campaign he moved to the right. Some of his supporters even talked about alliances with the Front National of Marine Le Pen. He kept talking about immigration as invasion, Muslims as the symbol of all immigrants coming to our country and changing our ‘way of life’.”

The voting on Sunday saw the Parti Socialiste triumph in historically conservative places. For the first time the PS was ahead in both Paris and its region. The overwhelming rejection was perhaps the reason that Sarkozy conceded defeat just half an hour after the polling stations closed.

François Hollande will officially take over as president on May 15. The immediate battle for the Parti Socialiste is not over: in June it faces all important parliamentary elections. The challenge says Pierre “is to win a socialist majority in order to be safe from a green-red pressure” from Sarkozy’s defeated Union for a Popular Movement and the far right threat of the Front National.

For Hollande the challenges are just starting: meanwhile his party is launched once more into a vital election battle.

(The above article was published in the London Progressive Journal on May 9 2012).

THE FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: AS VIEWED FROM THE RUE DE SOLFÉRINO

The Rue de Solférino is on the left bank of the Seine in Paris. It takes its name from the Battle of Solférino fought by Napoleon III and Victor Emmanuel II on one side against Francis Joseph of Austria on the other back in 1859. Needless to say Napoleon’s team won.

The street has many political associations and today is the headquarters of France’s Parti Socialiste. The Rue de Solférino is now witnessing another historic battle as the PS’ Francois Hollande seeks to oust the Bling Bling president of France, Sarkozy, from power. That battle will be decided by French voters on Sunday May 6.

At the Parti Socialiste HQ is the office of Pierre Kanuty, the party’s political advisor for International and Europe affairs. He is also a prolific blogger and shared with me his views on the state of the election so far after Sunday’s first round.

Pierre considers the first round of the presidential election - The beginning of the end for Sarkozy. He continued: “One can learn a lot from Sunday’s vote. The turnout was finally better than expected. French citizens are crazy about politics and despite a very long sequence - the socialist open primaries and the campaign, many of them vote.

“François Hollande gathered 10 millions of voters, reaching one of the highest results for a socialist candidate. Sarkozy didn't succeed at all. The hyper president never had a real momentum.”

That was the good news: what of the bad?

Pierre shares the views expressed here by the PS’s UK candidate Axelle Lemaire said: “The bad news came from the Front National (extreme right) with its best result since one voter out of five gave his or her vote to Marine Le Pen.

“New look but old ideas; the FN will put a heavy pressure on the Conservatives. Some pundits predict that they want to destroy the Conservative UMP in order to reshape the right.”

On the far left candidate Pierre observe: “Melenchon didn’t reach his goal - to be the third man, but with 10 per cent, he give the Communist Party and the radical left a steady weight.

“The Green Party failed in an election that is not right for them. With the crisis, people care less about ecology than about keeping their jobs.”

So what of the coming days before the final presidential run-off and the period that follows in France and wider Europe?

Pierre is a realist and issues a stark warning: “The victory is close but we’re not there yet. The right wing parties may lose in the vote, but they have already won in the heads - such a reality exists all over Europe.

“The progressives will have to address theses issues: how can we tackle the crisis, reduce deficit, find growth and make solidarity between people a priority?”

That is the challenge not just facing Hollande and the Parti Socialiste but those on the left of politics throughout Europe: it is a battle that has to be won.

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on April 26 and a version in the Morning Star on April 27 2012 as well as other online publications).

ADVANTAGE HOLLANDE

The French Open, one of tennis’ major grand slams, is coming up fast and hence to use the terminology of that sport the first round of that country’s presidential election sees the umpire call “Advantage Hollande”. However as in politics and in sport having the advantage does not guarantee victory.

In the first round of polling held on Sunday April 22 socialist Hollande took 28.6 per cent of the votes to put him ahead of the current president Sarkozy on 27.2 per cent. The big surprise of the day was the high vote for far right candidate Marine Le Pen with 17.9 per cent. In fourth place was the voice for the far left Jean-Luc Melenchon on 11.1 per cent whilst the centrist Francois Bayrou registered 9.1 per cent.

The second round on Sunday May 6 will be between Hollande and Sarkozy to determine who is the next president of France. Already Ifop has conducted and published a poll which on the basis of the soundings carried out after the polls closed on Sunday sees Hollande capturing 54.5 per cent of the vote with Sarkozy trailing on 45.5 per cent.

Just how the three main eliminated candidates’ votes are distributed in the second round is key to the outcome of the presidential election. The same Ifop polls said 83 per cent of the far left Jean-Luc Melenchon vote would go to Hollande whilst Sarkozy would collect 38 per cent of Bayrou’s voters and 48 per cent of Le Pen’s. Hollande would pick up 32 and 31 per cent respectively.

In the end event it may be down to the fact that the French voters have simply had enough of President Bling Bling and believe that socialist Hollande is more suited to these austere times.

Axelle Lemaire is the Parti Socialiste candidate for the UK and Northern Europe constituency for the French parliamentary elections that will be held in June. However she has also been working to get her supporters out to vote in the same constituency on April 22 and will again on May 6 for her party leader Francois Hollande.

On the first round vote Lemaire said: “We have good reasons to feel satisfied with the results. It is the first time in French modern political history that an outgoing president does not pass the first round in a leading position, and polls indicate that Mr Hollande enjoys a significant advance in the second round. But it leaves a sweet and sour taste, given the high score of the extreme right candidate Marine Le Pen, who actually attracted more voters than her father when he made it to the second round in 2002. In itself this is another sign that social democracy throughout Europe is facing a serious challenge from extremist and populist parties. Mr Hollande is the best candidate to address the real concerns of the people regarding their social and legal safety”.

So how did the French voters in the British Isles and other areas of Europe in this constituency vote? Lemaire says: “The results of the first round of the French presidential election in the North Europe constituency show that victory is possible for François Hollande here. Overall, the number of left-wing voters in the first round has increased compared with 2007, and seems to be higher than that of the right. There is clearly an opportunity to show that abroad too, French people want change for their country, and see addressed issues of justice, fairness and equality, as well as a clear strategy for Europe and for growth. This first result also indicates that the race will be tight, with every vote counting. Which path do we want France to take in the next five years and for the future generations? It is up to us to decide, in France, and abroad.”

On May 6 the people of France will speak: the chance of a historic socialist victory is within Hollande’s grasp if the voters have the courage of their convictions they have shown so far.

(The above article appeared in the London Progressive Journal on April 26 and a version in the Morning Star on April 27 2012 as well as other online publications).

Emma Reynolds: Labour’s Shadow Europe Minister also writes on this subject at:

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2012/04/24/hollande-in-pole-position/

HOLLANDE: IN BED WITH THE VOTERS

Some years ago when Britain was undergoing another of its sexual scandals involving a leading politician I was told this tale. The French president was running for re-election and his team discovered his opponent had fathered a child outside of wedlock in his 60s – should they leak the news? A panic stricken president said “no, no, suppress it. If the voters find out they’ll all vote for him!”

The president and opponent were never named and I know not if the story is true or apocryphal. However it sums up the Anglo Saxon view of Gallic politics where a rampant sex life is as much a badge of honour as ‘mom and apple pie’ are for US politicos.

That being so I was surprised to read that the Socialist candidate in the French presidential elections, Francois Hollande, is said to have been embarrassed by a book revelling the feuding women in his life.

Hollande’s former lover and mother of his four children – oh how very French – was Segolene Royal who was the failed Socialist candidate for the presidency in 2007. The book tells us that the new woman in Hollande’s life, Valerie Trierweiler, resented her royal rival and refused to support her in those elections. Hollande is said not to have been very supportive of Royal’s presidential bid either and the question is will Segolene seek revenge this time out?

The much hyped scandal, if that is what it truly is, is unlikely to help Sarkozy cling on to the presidency. French voters seem happy enough to be in bed with Hollande who has appealed to the traditional French dislike of the rich by saying he’ll tax earnings above one million euros by 75 per cent. Given those who earn over one million euros were unlikely to support the Parti Socialiste anyway Hollande seems to have hit on a safe seduction technique.

The French right is depicting Hollande as a man without ministerial experience when what the country needs at this time of European crisis is an experienced leader such as Sarkozy. Of course neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron had ministerial experience when they came to office and unless you are a two term US president all candidates come to that post untested as world leaders or commanders in chief. Opinion polls suggest that French voters are willing to gamble on Hollande: after all handling a complicated love life can be no more difficult that ruling from the Elysee.

The Labour MP Dennis McShane, who knows Hollande well, has described him as more Atlee and Truman than Blair or Obama. Yet I wonder how useful British or US comparisons are when used on French politicians.

Hollande has been described as the laid back man of French politics not difficult when your male opponent is noted for his “bling bling” and high heels. None-the less the quiet man produced an impressive speech in Le Bourget earlier this year before 25,000 people which captivated the nation with its messages of equality and financial regulation. He has also outdebated his opponents on TV. Hollande has built up a firm lead in the opinion polls over Sarkozy but there are weeks to go before polling day and it has to be seen how the Toulouse shooting spree by the Al Qaeda linked gunman pans out with voters. It should favour Sarkozy as he is seen as strong on security yet the election will be held on the economy so Hollande is still expected to triumph. Then there are potentially two president election days to win with Sarkozy favourite to be slightly ahead in the first but to be trounced by Hollande in the second on May 6. Yet rest assured the sitting president will pull out all the stops to stay in office.

Hollande is pro-Europe and socialists throughout the continent are pinning their hopes of a revival for them on his shoulders. However whether a Hollande victory will impact on the fortunes of the centre left in Britain, Germany, Italy or Spain remains to be seen.

The EU with Hollande as one of the key players will be a very different place to that in which Sarkozy holds centre right stage. The socialist president will want big money put in its place and kept under firm control. He wants a socially just world where workers share in the wealth they created. It is a French ideal which the voters seem to be falling in love with.

(The above article was publish in the London Progressive Journal on Sunday April 1 2012 - photograph courtesy of Axelle Lemaire).